As the 2025 Formula 1 season reaches its seventh round in Italy, close to Ferrari`s legendary headquarters in Maranello and the Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari circuit, it`s time to contemplate a truly difficult and almost unimaginable question: Will Lewis Hamilton ever stand on the top step of the podium again?
The most successful driver in F1`s 75-year history boasts 105 Grand Prix victories, being the only competitor to reach triple digits. Next month marks the 18th anniversary of his debut win, but just one month later will be the anniversary of his most recent triumph. For ordinary individuals, this gap might seem short, but for the elite drivers who make their living behind the wheel, it feels like a journey into the unknown.
This trajectory could change, of course, if Hamilton can skillfully navigate his SF-25 away from this edge and achieve a podium finish between now and then. The significant challenge, however, is that neither the celebrated driver nor his relatively new team, Ferrari – arguably the greatest F1 organization ever – have shown any signs that they are capable of achieving such a feat currently.
Just ask the man himself. We frequently do, each race weekend.
Here are some comments from the seven-time world champion, who turned 40 in January, from the last three race weekends:
`I`ve been nowhere all weekend.`
`There wasn`t one second [where I felt comfortable].`
`Clearly, the car is capable of being P3. Charles [Leclerc] did a great job today. So, I can`t blame the car.`
Lewis, are you hopeful?
`Praying is more like it.`
`We`ll keep trying, we`re only six races in, but we`re struggling big-time. We`re trying our hardest not to make big setup changes, but no matter what we do, it`s so inconsistent every time we go out.`
And perhaps the most revealing statement?
`It`s just about my performance. Poor performance. There`s no reasons. I`m just not doing the job. I`m just not doing a good enough job on my side. So, I`ve just got to keep improving … it`s definitely not a good feeling.`
This feeling is also unfamiliar for him. Or at least, it used to be.
As Hamilton arrives in Imola, 291 days have passed since his last victory, which occurred at Spa in July 2024. He inherited that win after his then-Mercedes teammate George Russell was disqualified for being underweight, despite crossing the line first. Hamilton had genuinely crossed the line first at Silverstone just three weeks prior.
Before those results, he had experienced a 56-race winless streak, by far the longest of his illustrious career. Add his current 0-for-16 run to that, and it amounts to only two wins in his last 75 attempts. Notably, those wins came with his previous team, Mercedes, which currently holds a position two places and 47 points ahead of Ferrari in this year`s constructors` standings.
This contrasts sharply with a racer who, from 2007 through 2021, averaged nearly seven victories annually, achieved double-digit wins six times, and secured multiple wins in all but one of those fifteen seasons.
This illustrates how an athlete can spiral from someone who effortlessly exuded confidence and made winning appear simple, to a person visibly struggling with self-doubt. Feeling adrift. Trying things aimlessly. Looking ahead and seeing only uncertainty. These, too, are unsettling feelings.
However, they are also familiar feelings for many others who have confronted the harsh reality of auto racing: eventually, the victories cease.
It happened to Richard Petty, who achieved his 200th NASCAR Cup Series win on July 4, 1984, only to end his career with an extensive 0-for-241 drought. It happened to A.J. Foyt, who won his 67th IndyCar race in 1981 and then failed to win again over twelve subsequent years of trying. It even happened to Michael Schumacher, the pre-Hamilton F1 legend, who won seven races in what was initially planned as his final 2006 season, only to return four years later and conclude his renowned career on a 0-for-58 skid with just one podium finish across three seasons dedicated to rebuilding the then-struggling Mercedes team.
“I won at least a couple of races every year for 16 years, and then my last three seasons I won zero times,” recalls Jimmie Johnson, a seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion who has interacted with Hamilton over the years. “Man, once that momentum shifts and starts working against you, it`s hard to turn it around.”
“It`s tough in the moment to see what the issue is, or how to correct it, how to fix it. With the perspective of time, I can see it now. I had the same crew for most of my career, then had big changes at the end, and that`s hard because now you have to start that learning clock again. That tests your patience. It tests your fire. That`s where Lewis is right now.”
This challenge to one`s passion is very real, like a sudden splash of cold water. Johnson remembers distinct phases of this test. He recalls being “so pissed off” at those who questioned his commitment, but eventually coming to terms with the fact that they might have had a point. Admission, followed by acceptance, that perhaps the missing ingredient isn`t solely related to the car or adapting to a new team.
“The moment I knew that I was done, I remember it like it was yesterday,” confesses Rick Mears, who surprised the American open-wheel racing world by retiring at the end of the 1992 season, just one year after his record-tying fourth Indy 500 victory. “My entire career, when I woke up in the morning my first thought was, `This is what we are going to try in practice today.` Then one day I got to the garage and asked the team, `What are we doing today?` I knew right then that the fire had gone out.”
Mears is among the fortunate few, having recognized the fading flame and choosing to step away on his own terms while still seemingly in a winning mindset and driving for a competitive team. For most, that path resembles a long trek into a barren landscape, unrecognized until they have ventured too far.
“You feel the same way. You act the same way. You drive the same way. You ask the same question and have the same answers and lean on the same knowledge and experience that you always have, but you don`t get the same results,” explains three-time NASCAR champion Darrell Waltrip. He won 84 races, placing him fifth all-time, but concluded his Hall of Fame career with an 0-for-243 record and witnessed his self-owned team face bankruptcy. “They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again with the same result, but what do they say when that`s the same thing you did over and over again for 20-plus years and got the best possible result? Why wouldn`t you keep doing it? Because one day, it has to come back around again, right? Well, maybe not.”
To their credit, for some who have persevered, the winning does return. Consider the driver many regard as the NASCAR GOAT.
It`s often overlooked now, but Dale Earnhardt`s iconic 1998 Daytona 500 victory was his solitary win over a 100-race period from early 1996 through spring 1999. However, after overcoming largely untreated health issues and with his team, Richard Childress Racing, having resolved some developmental challenges, he secured five more victories over the next two seasons. After finishing second in the 2000 championship, he was considered a title contender heading into 2001 before his tragic accident in that year`s Daytona 500.
“That`s the hope when you are stuck in a slump, that one day it will click again and maybe you have one more great moment left in you,” says Helio Castroneves, who remarkably revived an IndyCar career that seemed destined for retirement to win his record-equalling fourth Indy 500 in 2021, twenty years after his first and twelve years after his third. “We are talking about Hamilton and Formula 1, right? Well, this is the conversation that I had with Fernando Alonso when he was here (for the 2017, 2019, and 2020 Indy 500s): `Hey, old guys, why are you still doing this?`”
This autumn marks the 20th anniversary of the first of Alonso`s two world titles. His most recent F1 win was 12 years ago this week. Yet, he continues, at 43, still striving behind the wheel of his Aston Martin – a team that, in its current form, has never won a Grand Prix. And the reason?
“Because we still believe we can,” continues Castroneves, who this weekend is attempting to qualify for his 25th consecutive Indy 500. He is once again with Meyer Shank Racing, the underdog team with whom he achieved his stunning 2021 victory. “And honestly, I can tell you firsthand, when you do it with a team that is smaller or is rebuilding, it`s an even better feeling. Because you have proven that, `Hey, I`m still pretty good at this.` And being the guy who put that team on the podium, the one that`s fought so hard to get there, that makes the struggle worth it.”
“I won many races, some famous and some infamous,” said Damon Hill, the 1996 world champion and winner of 22 F1 events, at the Miami GP earlier this month. “When I won with Williams, all but one of them, it was amazing. Truly. But when I won that one race for Jordan, a team that had to scrap, there is a payoff there that is hard to describe. No one is ever going to call Ferrari a Jordan, but if you can turn a struggling team around, no matter who it is, as a racing driver there is certainly validation there. You helped show them the way.”
Whether this journey will ultimately be rewarding for Hamilton remains to be seen, and it might take some time to find out. For many, the focus has already shifted to 2026. As the summer progresses and Ferrari potentially falls further behind, attention will increasingly turn to F1`s next-generation car – a lighter, more aerodynamically dynamic design intended as a reset, scheduled to debut next season. Hamilton has already expressed his anticipation for its arrival.
But in the interim, the challenge continues. Those negative feelings. That self-doubt. As is often the case in racing, just a single win could provide relief from this struggle, with hopes set on greater achievements in 2026 and beyond. That aspiration of becoming the savior for Ferrari, a dream that eluded so many champions before Hamilton, including Alonso, who arrived at Maranello hoping to emulate Schumacher`s feat of lifting a world championship trophy adorned in red.
The last time anyone achieved that was Kimi Räikkönen in 2007, the same year a newcomer named Hamilton entered F1 and quickly secured four victories.
“Whenever Lewis decides to hang it up and he can look back, it`ll be more telling. His gut or his heart will steer him to a conclusion that he probably can`t see right now,” says Johnson, who offered some advice for his friend. “But for now, it takes time to meld with the team. Leclerc, he`s been in these cars for a few years and knows that system. Then there`s this next moment in time that, you know, if his heart stays in it, and he can spend that time there, with that new gen coming up for these guys around the corner, this whole thing`s going to shake up. Hopefully, Ferrari is going to be ready for that.”
If Ferrari isn`t prepared for 2026, then the answer to our initial question becomes straightforward. No, he won`t win again. That competitive fire will be extinguished.
However, if Ferrari is indeed ready for 2026, it could become one of the most extraordinary narratives in motorsport history. A truly rare occurrence, where winning had stopped but somehow, defying one of racing`s fundamental principles, began again.
In simpler terms, Lewis Hamilton does what he has always done, perhaps for one final time.
Rupert Caldwell