The Toronto Maple Leafs` reward for advancing to the second playoff round is a matchup with the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, who quickly dispatched the Tampa Bay Lightning in their first-round series.
Florida`s decisive five-game victory over Tampa Bay was so convincing that Lightning coach Jon Cooper conceded the state`s hockey dominance. “It was our turn,” Cooper told reporters. “Now it`s theirs.”
A formidable challenge awaits the Maple Leafs, who are seeking their first trip to the conference finals in 23 years. Here`s a breakdown of what they will encounter starting Monday at Scotiabank Arena.
Florida`s Strengths
Where to begin? The Panthers boast impressive scoring depth; six players registered at least five points against the Lightning. In stark contrast, only Toronto`s “Core Four” forwards surpassed three points in their series against the Ottawa Senators.
The effectiveness of the Panthers` third line—featuring Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, and veteran forward Brad Marchand—underscores their roster`s depth. This trio outscored the Lightning 4-0 at 5-on-5 throughout the series, including a 2-0 advantage in the deciding Game 5. Luostarinen himself posted a four-point performance in Game 5, setting a franchise playoff record for points in a road game. (Notably, Marchand has a history of success against the Maple Leafs, with 10 goals and 29 points in 28 career playoff contests).
Known for a roster full of tough competitors, the Panthers` strategy involves wearing down opponents through relentless pressure. They lead the NHL playoffs in 5-on-5 puck dump-ins (63.4%) and consistently create offensive opportunities below the goal line.
Florida also excels in puck retrieval, winning a playoff-best 55.8% of their puck battles. Their ability to quickly capitalize on turnovers was evident in the first round, where they scored nine goals within 10 seconds of forcing a giveaway across all situations – ranking second among all teams behind Minnesota and St. Louis (10 goals each). Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk were tied for the team lead with two such goals each.
Defensively, the Panthers were highly effective at shutting down Tampa Bay, the league`s top-scoring team in the regular season. The Lightning, who averaged 3.56 goals per game before the playoffs, were limited to just 12 goals (2.4 per game) in the first round, including only two power-play goals on 18 attempts (11.1%). Tampa Bay`s expected goals per game also saw a significant dip against Florida, falling from a league-best 3.65 in the regular season to 2.58.
It`s uncommon to see two Selke Trophy finalists on the same team, a feat the Panthers achieved with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, who play together on the same line. This line, along with Carter Verhaeghe, successfully neutralized Tampa Bay`s top forward group of Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov, limiting them to only two 5-on-5 goals in the series.
In head-to-head regular season matchups, Barkov faced Auston Matthews for 20 minutes and 30 seconds at 5-on-5. Neither team scored during this ice time, and scoring chances were even at 9-9.
How the Craig Berube-coached Maple Leafs will match up against the physical Panthers remains a key question, but Florida`s intense, grinding strategy has proven highly effective over the past few seasons.
“It`s going to be a battle,” Berube told reporters. “It’s going to be a grind. You can talk all the X’s and O’s you want, and there’s things that we’re going to do to try to nullify their forecheck. But in the end, they’re going to forecheck, and they’re going to get there.”
Tristan Blackwood