The news landed with the force of a sudden downpour in Milton Keynes: Christian Horner, the architect of Red Bull Racing’s Formula 1 dynasty, was out. Dismissed after two decades at the helm. The shock factor was undeniable – this was the man who had been there since day one in 2005, presiding over every single one of the team`s 124 wins and delivering six constructors` and eight drivers` championships. He built a juggernaut.
Yet, amidst the surprise, there was also a sense of inevitability. How can both be true? Such is the paradox that has defined Red Bull`s internal landscape for the past couple of years. While Horner’s legacy is secure, his position had become increasingly precarious, seemingly a ticking time bomb set against a backdrop of on-track dominance that was, perhaps, masking deeper fissures.
The prevailing analysis, the simplest read on a complex situation, points towards one central figure: Max Verstappen. Red Bull`s decision to remove its long-standing leader appears, at its core, to be a high-stakes gamble – a decisive move aimed squarely at retaining their four-time world champion amid swirling rumors of a potential defection, notably to Mercedes.
A Confluence of Cracks
While the public face of the team, particularly through Verstappen’s relentless success, remained formidable, the internal structure had begun to show significant cracks. The personal scandal that shadowed Horner earlier in the year, though resulting in his official exoneration after internal and appeal processes, did little to mend fences behind the scenes. Instead, it deepened existing divisions, most notably escalating tensions with Max’s father, Jos Verstappen, and influential Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko.
Sources close to the team had long indicated growing unease among certain stakeholders regarding Horner`s increasing power following the death of founder Dietrich Mateschitz. This internal strife, while persistent, might not have been enough on its own to force such a drastic change.
The critical turning point appears to be the confluence of internal discord with a tangible decline in the team`s on-track performance. The stopwatch, as they say in F1, never lies. After years of appearing untouchable, Red Bull`s once-dominant machinery began to falter noticeably from the middle of 2024.
The Brain Drain and the Difficult Car
Compounding the performance issues was a quiet, yet significant, brain drain. The departures of legendary designer Adrian Newey, sporting director Jonathan Wheatley (now celebrating podiums elsewhere, slightly awkwardly), strategy chief Will Courtenay (bound for a thriving McLaren, eventually), and former chief designer Rob Marshall highlighted a hemorrhage of key technical and operational talent. Attempts to fill these voids, according to reports, have not been uniformly successful, hinting at a team struggling to maintain its technical edge and organizational stability.
Furthermore, the performance gulf between Max Verstappen and his teammates became starkly apparent. Sergio Pérez, a known Horner ally, struggled significantly before his departure, as did brief replacement Liam Lawson, and currently, Yuki Tsunoda. Verstappen`s consistent, albeit sometimes frustrated, insistence that the cars were difficult to drive and lacked accessibility seemed increasingly validated by his teammates` inability to extract performance. His “I told you so” attitude towards the car`s handling characteristics underscored a deeper dissatisfaction with the machinery provided.
Verstappen`s Leverage
Amidst this brewing storm, Max Verstappen`s contractual situation loomed large. Reports suggest a clause in his contract could allow him to leave if he falls below third in the drivers` championship after the Hungarian Grand Prix. While a move to Mercedes in 2026, with the drastic regulatory changes, might seem risky, the mere possibility became powerful leverage. Verstappen and his management, particularly his father and agent Raymond Vermeulen, did not shy away from letting this possibility hang in the air.
Perhaps most tellingly, just days before his dismissal, Horner himself publicly addressed the possibility of Verstappen leaving, stating that Red Bull needed to be prepared for life without him. He also resurrected Dietrich Mateschitz`s philosophy from 2014 when Sebastian Vettel considered leaving: “We don`t need the best driver if we don`t have the best car.” In hindsight, this sounds less like a long-term strategy and more like a final, perhaps defiant, assertion that the team`s strength lay beyond any single individual, even the driver currently carrying it almost entirely.
Red Bull`s removal of Christian Horner is a clear signal – a strategic maneuver designed, it seems, to stabilize the ship and remove a figure perceived by some key factions, potentially including those closest to Verstappen, as a source of disruption. Whether this high-stakes gamble is enough to secure Max Verstappen`s long-term commitment beyond 2025, especially with a challenging 2026 season looming as Red Bull debuts its own engine program, remains the million-dollar question. But for now, the team has made its choice, betting its future on retaining its superstar driver, even if it meant saying goodbye to the man who built their empire.
What Awaits the Former Chief?
In the blink of an eye, Christian Horner transitioned from one of Formula 1`s most powerful figures to being out of a job. While his unparalleled record speaks volumes, true influence in the F1 paddock is inextricably linked to a significant role within a team or organization.
Speculation about his next move is inevitable. Horner is known to maintain relationships with key figures elsewhere, notably Ferrari Chairman John Elkann and Alpine Executive Flavio Briatore. While a move to Ferrari seems unlikely given recent denials and Lewis Hamilton`s impending arrival, who endured the bitter rivalry of 2021, Alpine or even a non-team, perhaps shareholder, role elsewhere could emerge as possibilities down the line.
For now, the man who led Red Bull through its most glorious chapters faces an uncertain future, a fascinating subplot in the ever-unpredictable world of Formula 1.
Rupert Caldwell 
Tristan Blackwood