Max Verstappen`s already-slim championship aspirations suffered a significant setback at Sunday`s Spanish Grand Prix. His frustration boiled over, leading him to make contact with George Russell`s Mercedes. This incident resulted in a 10-second time penalty, ultimately relegating him to a 10th-place finish and earning him just a single championship point. This was a disappointing outcome from a race weekend where a podium spot and 15 points were within reach.
Following this result, the reigning champion now finds himself 49 points behind championship leader Oscar Piastri and 39 points adrift of Lando Norris in second place in the drivers` standings. When questioned by the media after the race about his controversial driving, Verstappen seemed eager to downplay the criticism and discuss other topics, including his diminishing title prospects.
“If there are any [hopes], we are way too slow anyway to fight for the title,” he stated. “I think that was clear again today.”
Prior to the Spanish Grand Prix, there was a degree of guarded optimism within Red Bull that new, stricter front-wing deflection tests might impede McLaren`s recent progress. However, the championship-leading team appeared minimally impacted by this technical directive. They reported that any performance change after making adjustments to comply was negligible, describing it as being “within the noise” of typical variations between circuits.
Consequently, Piastri and Norris proved to be the dominant force in qualifying at the Circuit de Barcelona Catalunya and went on to secure a comfortable one-two victory in Sunday`s race. On the surface, the fight for the championship now looks more like a battle solely between two drivers than it has at any other point this season.
Yet, despite the wave of negative headlines on Sunday, Verstappen`s subsequent apologetic post on Instagram, and a car that has proven challenging for Red Bull this year, ruling him out of the title race entirely at this juncture would be a remarkably bold prediction.
Why Verstappen Still Has a Chance
Recall the first race of F1`s European tripleheader in Imola, and the picture was quite different. Verstappen took the lead from Piastri on the opening lap and went on to claim a convincing victory ahead of both McLarens.
Car updates introduced in Miami and Imola helped Verstappen achieve a better balance with his car, which in turn allowed him to manage his tires more effectively and outperform the McLarens. His performances in Monaco and Spain were less convincing, however, as these tracks highlighted some of Red Bull`s remaining weaknesses. Spain, in particular, played perfectly to McLaren`s strengths.
Managing rear tire overheating has been a significant advantage for McLaren this season. This positive characteristic was evident before the Spanish Grand Prix in races like Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Miami, to the extent that some rival teams began to suspect McLaren was employing methods beyond what is strictly permitted by the regulations.
Therefore, it was perhaps not surprising that McLaren held an advantage over Verstappen on the scorching hot and abrasive track surface in Barcelona. Furthermore, the high temperature, combined with key differences between the circuit layouts of Spain and Imola, further tilted the balance in McLaren`s favor.
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella elaborated, “Technically speaking, one characteristic of Spain is its very long corners – unlike Imola, where corners are relatively shorter. In these long corners, the MCL39 seems to have retained some of the strengths of its predecessor. For instance, last year at Zandvoort, another track with long corners, Lando dominated the weekend.” He added, “We believe we kept some aerodynamic strengths despite improving the car overall. These strengths were rewarding on this type of track, where the length of the corners helped us today, even if the speed range is similar to some others.”
Given McLaren`s inherent strengths at Barcelona, Verstappen`s ability to stay relatively close during the race was somewhat unexpected. Red Bull`s three-stop strategy was theoretically slower than the more conventional two-stop used by the McLaren drivers, yet for a significant portion of the race, Verstappen remained uncomfortably close to the McLarens on the pit wall.
Stella commented on Verstappen`s pace, stating, “He was fast, and when we switched to the medium tires in the second stint, we were pushing and managing the pace, yet he was closing the gap very quickly, faster than we anticipated.” He continued, “At one point, we even asked our drivers if they could push harder, and both indicated they were nearing their limit.” Stella admitted, “We were slightly concerned that the situation could become more open than we expected after the first stint. However, thankfully, Verstappen`s pace eventually dropped off a little, and Oscar found significant pace late in the second stint, which allowed us to execute our pit stops smoothly.”
The safety car period that occurred after the final sequence of planned pit stops underscored the risk of Red Bull`s three-stop strategy. When Verstappen was called into the pits, he was limited to switching to hard tires. His only remaining set of soft tires had already completed several laps in qualifying and on the grid before the race, meaning they offered very little advantage over the eight-lap-old softs that were already fitted to his car.
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner explained the strategic dilemma on Sunday evening: “The safety car came out on Lap 54, which was probably the worst possible timing for our strategy. We were then faced with the choice: do you stay out on an eight-lap-old, heavily used soft tire, where you would likely be overtaken easily at the restart?” Horner noted there were about 10 racing laps remaining. “Unfortunately, the only available tires we had, having committed to the three-stop strategy, was a new set of hards. Our assessment was that new hards were better than heavily degraded eight-lap-old softs. So, that`s the decision we made; we pitted.”
What followed was Verstappen`s widely discussed frustrated performance during the final six laps of the race. However, up to that point, the defending champion had arguably performed better against the McLarens than might have been expected, given the circuit`s characteristics and the high temperatures.
While Verstappen is correct in asserting that the performance gap seen in Barcelona would make a title challenge impossible if it persisted throughout the season, fortunately for the four-time champion (and for F1 fans), the remaining 15 races will take place on a variety of different circuit types. Upcoming Grands Prix in Canada, Austria, and Great Britain are anticipated to be more favorable to the Red Bull car and could potentially feature cooler conditions, making this period a critical phase for Verstappen`s championship campaign.
Furthermore, if the competition between the McLaren drivers remains fierce, it could create more opportunities for Verstappen, as Norris and Piastri will inevitably take points away from each other.
Had Verstappen managed to finish third in Spain, he would have lost only three points to Piastri across the three races of the tripleheader, despite McLaren having a clear car advantage at two of those events. Losing just three points every three races is, of course, insufficient for Verstappen to win the championship on its own. However, with the competitive order likely to fluctuate from track to track, it demonstrates that consistent high finishes could keep him in the fight.
This context makes his self-inflicted points loss in Spain all the more frustrating. In addition to the championship points lost on Sunday, Verstappen faces a precarious situation in the next two races, being just one penalty point away from a race ban. While two of the 11 penalty points currently on his super license will expire at the end of June (one year after his incident with Norris at the Red Bull Ring last season), he will be on a tightrope in Canada and Austria. A minor infraction in either race could lead to a suspension, potentially extinguishing his remaining hopes for a title challenge.
Assuming he avoids further penalties, Verstappen needs to outscore Piastri by an average of 3.27 points per race over the final 15 rounds and Norris by 2.6 points per race to secure the championship. Viewed in this way, it is not an insurmountable challenge, but it will require near-perfect performances for the remainder of the season.
When asked Sunday evening if the drivers` title was already beyond Verstappen`s grasp, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner replied, “Look, I think there`s a significant gap now, but there`s also an awful lot of points still available. We`re not even halfway through the year yet. McLaren are in a very strong position, but we never give up.”
Rupert Caldwell