For the past three years, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have predominantly occupied the top two positions in the Hologic WTA Tour rankings, frequently exchanging spots.
Although Sabalenka currently holds a significant lead of over 3,000 points in the PIF WTA Rankings, she is still closely monitoring the performance of world No. 2, Swiatek.
Following her 6-3, 6-4 victory over Anna Blinkova on Friday, Sabalenka offered a surprisingly detailed commentary on Swiatek`s challenging three-set win against 19-year-old Alexandra Eala the previous day. Swiatek had to fight back after losing the first set and being down a break in the second.
“Yeah, it was great match,” Sabalenka told reporters. “Honestly, I think Iga didn’t really start well, she was missing a lot. But then she played calm and started playing much better, put a lot of pressure on Eala and got the win. Nice comeback for Iga after really tough start.”
Sabalenka and Swiatek, who have faced each other in the Mutua Madrid Open final in the last two editions – Sabalenka winning in 2023 and Swiatek in 2024 – are considered favorites to reach the final again this year.
“It’s kind of like really far, talking about the final,” Sabalenka said, laughing. “When you make it to the final, we can talk about that. Of course I’d like to play another final against her. It’s always kind of like leg-busters. It’s really cool to play and hopefully really cool to watch for people.”
However, for Swiatek, the stakes in Madrid extend beyond simply progressing through the draw. She could potentially leave the tournament not only without the title but also without her No. 2 ranking.
Swiatek has maintained a place within the Top 2 rankings every week since March 21, 2022. This impressive streak is now under threat. Both Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff have opportunities to overtake her depending on how results unfold:
If Swiatek loses in…
- Round of 32: Pegula passes with semifinals and Gauff passes with final
- Round of 16: Pegula passes with semifinals and Gauff passes with final
- Quarterfinals: Pegula passes with final and Gauff passes with final
- Semifinals: Pegula passes with final and Gauff passes with title
If Swiatek reaches the final…
- Pegula can pass her only by winning the title; Gauff is no longer in contention to pass
If Swiatek wins the title…
- She guarantees keeping her No. 2 ranking
Should Pegula and Gauff meet in the final, the winner of that match would ascend to the World No. 2 spot. For Pegula, this would mark her highest-ever ranking. Gauff previously held the No. 2 spot on August 12, 2024.
Swiatek, for her part, is keeping her focus on improving her game. After her gritty victory over Eala, she immediately headed back to the practice courts for about 30 minutes to fine-tune aspects of her movement and timing that were inconsistent during the match.
“I just felt like there are some stuff I need to work on, and it was best to do it right after, so the body can remember the good movement,” Swiatek said. “It`s good that I had the opportunity to do that.”
She admitted that adjusting to the altitude conditions in Madrid remains a challenge.
“It’s never so easy to adjust,” she said. “The first practices were much colder. Yesterday it was hotter, so the feelings were totally different. The balls were flying a little bit out of control from my racquet, so I got the tension a little bit higher in the second set, and then it was better.”
Swiatek indicated that rather than overanalyzing the recent match, her priority is reinforcing positive habits on court.
“Sometimes when you’re not starting well it takes a little more time to find your game,” she said. “But then I did, so I`m glad.”
Rupert Caldwell