Without any preamble, here are several thoughts on the Toronto Maple Leafs` situation following Game 4 of the second-round playoff series, which currently sees them tied 2-2 with the Florida Panthers.
Auston Matthews` Scoring Drought is Concerning, But Aiming Issues Aren`t the Main Cause
Frankly, little else matters if Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner cannot find a way to generate more offense. Aside from the emergence of Joseph Woll in net (a sudden positive), everything else is secondary.
Let`s focus on Matthews today. I want to correct the narrative that his scoring struggles are primarily due to missing the net. While he has missed slightly more often than in the regular season (just over two misses per game in the playoffs compared to just under two), focusing solely on this can lead to confirmation bias.
He takes a high volume of shots (tied for second most with Connor McDavid, behind only Nathan MacKinnon) and is attempting difficult shots to find the corners.
Missing the net, like turnovers, can be high for elite players because they have the puck and attempt shots frequently. He has had some noticeable misses, but I don`t view this as the core issue. It might be a symptom of needing to rush shots more often, as he isn`t getting into his preferred scoring positions as effectively as usual.
Essentially, the Leafs` star center isn`t imposing himself on the game right now. He appears less mobile, standing more than skating, almost observing and waiting for others to take charge, as if he were a finesse player like Teemu Selanne rather than a power forward like Eric Lindros. While Matthews has never been exceptionally fast, he typically reaches his top speed consistently. That hasn`t been happening.
This dip in skating speed has been a recurring theme in the playoffs. Here are his top skating speed percentile ranks (99th being the best) over the last three years, comparing regular season to playoffs:
2024-25: 61st / Below 50th
2023-24: 63rd / Below 50th
2022-23: 64th / 57th
When a player isn`t skating effectively, they can`t contribute to the forecheck. Matthews` “hits per 60 minutes” has consistently been above 9.00 in the past five playoff runs, but this year it`s closer to 7.00. He needs to improve his skating, and many other aspects of his game (including shooting accuracy) should naturally improve.
This situation is frustrating from a coaching perspective, though it`s not solely on Matthews. Consider the opening faceoff in a crucial road game. To me, that`s an opportunity to set the tone.
Florida maintains a tight defensive structure, making it difficult to carry the puck through the neutral zone. Therefore, dumping the puck in becomes necessary. The wingers are expected to reload and build speed for the forecheck, but observe the three forwards. Matthews isn`t positioning himself aggressively for the forecheck, ready to deliver a strong hit. Marner takes minimal strides through the neutral zone. Matthew Knies gets ahead of the play too quickly, losing momentum.
When the Leafs dump the puck, Matthews inexplicably skates backward, while Marner enters the zone late and passively, allowing the Florida defense to easily retrieve the puck and clear it without pressure.
That was a poor attempt to set the tone right at the start of the game, although in fairness, it did accurately predict the game`s overall feel.
This exemplifies the current issue with Matthews` game for me. I`m not convinced he`s injured (there`s no other evidence). He simply looks bogged down, drifting away from dangerous scoring areas. In a road game against a team like Florida, he must understand that the only way to succeed is through direct engagement.
Florida has a history of neutralizing star players, as evidenced by Connor McDavid being held scoreless in Games 6 and 7 of the Cup Final last year (with only two total shots). I`m not suggesting it`s easy, but you cannot approach the game assuming it will be anything less than a physical, structured battle. Matthews is a superstar and has played a significant role in getting the Leafs this far. However, he needs to display more intensity and drive right now.
Dumping the Puck is Essential Against the Panthers` Structure
This is a good point to elaborate on: Florida dictates the flow of play, and eight of their last nine playoff opponents have struggled to find solutions against them. Sunday night showcased arguably the best team defense I`ve seen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season. Every Panther player seemed perfectly positioned.
Aware of how difficult it is to recover dumped pucks against Florida, the Leafs attempted to maintain possession and navigate the neutral zone in Game 4 while trailing. This proved ineffective. When the Panthers are set in their neutral zone coverage, the strategy must be to dump the puck in; otherwise, attempts to break in resemble the ineffective plays seen earlier.
So, what alternatives are available?
Generating Offense Off the Rush is a Leafs Advantage
Florida has allowed a surprisingly high number of breakaways over the past couple of seasons, and the Leafs have been relatively successful at capitalizing on this. Knies had a breakaway in Game 4, and William Nylander nearly did as well. Toronto has a 19-13 advantage in odd-man rushes in the series, a category they don`t typically control.
Coaches often emphasize safe plays like “don`t cheat, stick with it.” However, when Florida is playing at its best, it`s rare to see a team generate offense purely by sticking rigidly to structure. Yes, Toronto needs strong defense. But given how often they flip pucks out during breakouts, it might be acceptable for some forwards to leave the zone slightly earlier.
Encouraging a few players (like Nylander, Knies, Marner, Max Domi, Bobby McMann) to anticipate leaving the zone early isn`t likely to devastate the Leafs defensively, as Florida isn`t an overwhelming offensive force. The potential rewards are significant: not only the chance to score but also the possibility that the threat of early breakouts could force the Panthers` defense to back off, making subsequent breakouts easier for Toronto.
And the Leafs desperately need easier breakouts.
Does Home Ice Matchup Advantage Matter?
Certainly, but perhaps more significantly for Florida. Matthews` line had been effectively handling Aleksander Barkov`s line (dominating expected goals, shot attempts, and actual goals in the first three games) to the point where Florida coach Paul Maurice shifted Barkov`s line to face William Nylander`s group, which had been performing exceptionally well for the Leafs. This was a smart move by Maurice, almost an obvious adjustment.
As a result, the Panthers found a favorable matchup in Game 4, with Nylander`s line becoming less effective, while Matthews and Marner were unable to capitalize against the second line and second defense pair of Seth Jones and Niko Mikkola.
With the series returning to Toronto, the Leafs will almost certainly revert to the matchup that worked earlier, pitting Matthews against Barkov. This power-on-power approach allowed the Leafs` second line more freedom and opportunities.
Should Lineup Changes Be Made?
Yes, it seems it`s time for some adjustments. David Kampf, earning over $2 million annually, played the fifth-most minutes among Leafs forwards (behind the top four) during their previous successful playoff round. He is not a marginal player. Nick Robertson brings skating ability and a willingness to work, plus he can score if he gets opportunities in the offensive zone. The team isn`t getting so much production from players like Calle Jarnkrok that the current lineup should be considered untouchable.
More importantly, to leverage their depth, the Leafs must utilize their strengths. Having 14 NHL-caliber forwards means they have the ability to inject new energy into the lineup when performance stagnates.
The only reasons to hesitate on what seems like a straightforward decision are the extra day of rest before the next game, which should naturally provide a boost in energy, and the fact that the Leafs won their games in Toronto with the current lineup, demonstrating its potential to succeed.
It`s a difficult call, but in my opinion, if the goal is to play for five or six more weeks this season, the team would benefit from distributing the workload more evenly across the forward group.
Tristan Blackwood