MADRID — Aryna Sabalenka possesses a comprehensive set of skills. The World No. 1 is a complete player, continually refining her game with subtle improvements in every match. What she doesn`t always receive enough recognition for is her mental resilience under pressure.
In Wednesday`s Mutua Madrid Open quarterfinals, Sabalenka faced a rigorous challenge from the talented Marta Kostyuk in a match decided by two incredibly tight tiebreaks. Sabalenka displayed immense composure and skill, ultimately winning 7-6(4), 7-6(7).
Naturally, the second-set tiebreak saw a brief interruption due to rain. When play resumed after the roof closure, Sabalenka was trailing 5-4. However, she demonstrated her clutch ability, saving a set point with a powerful backhand winner down the line – one of three she faced in that extended game.
Sabalenka, the last player to qualify for Thursday`s semifinals after a match lasting over two and a half hours, is scheduled to face No. 17 seed Elina Svitolina. Svitolina advanced with a convincing 6-2, 6-1 victory over unseeded Moyuka Uchijima.
Thursday`s earlier semifinal matchup pits No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek against No. 4 seed Coco Gauff. Swiatek recovered after dropping the first set to Madison Keys, winning 0-6, 6-3, 6-2. Gauff defeated 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva 7-5, 6-1.
Wednesday`s final quarterfinal between Sabalenka and Kostyuk featured an 85-minute first set that was a true spectacle. Sabalenka saved nine out of ten break points against her before winning a tense tiebreak.
In that tiebreak, Sabalenka pulled away from 3-all by winning three consecutive points. With Kostyuk serving, a forehand sailed wide. Sabalenka then utilized a favored tactic in the ad-court, hitting an out-wide serve followed by a searing forehand that caught the line. After Kostyuk saved a second set point, Sabalenka converted her third opportunity when Kostyuk`s backhand found the net.
`Every time I come here,` Sabalenka told the crowd afterward, `I always hope I`m going to stay until the last stage.`
The prospect is tantalizing. Tennis enthusiasts might find it hard not to look ahead, as there`s a potential for a third consecutive Madrid final showdown between the world`s top two players, Sabalenka and Swiatek.
Should they meet, they would become the first pair to contest a WTA 1000 (formerly Tier I) final for three consecutive years since the format was established 35 years ago.
Let`s break down tomorrow`s semifinals:
No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 17 Elina Svitolina
The case for Sabalenka:
Few handle pressure situations quite like Sabalenka.
Consider the statistic for break points saved – where the server faces maximum pressure. Before facing Kostyuk, Sabalenka led the tour this year having saved 141 break points. That number climbed to 154 after her quarterfinal win.
While acknowledging Swiatek`s clay court expertise, it`s worth noting that in Madrid, where conditions are slightly faster, Sabalenka has secured two titles – remarkably, these are the only clay titles of her career. Swiatek holds one Madrid title.
Sabalenka showed moments of being unsettled against Kostyuk, but her strong desire to win this tournament was evident.
Her record in Madrid is impressive: 21 wins against 4 losses. This marks her sixth semifinal appearance of the season, following runs in Brisbane, the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and Stuttgart.
Furthermore, Svitolina has won only one of their five previous encounters.
“I think the end of both sets were pretty tough,” Sabalenka said after her win on Thursday. “I think the whole match, I was handling myself because of the conditions. It wasn’t about tennis, it was just about the way you can handle yourself and the way you can focus on yourself. That’s what I mean by handling myself. Because I think in those conditions anyone can win, so it’s nothing about tennis.”
The case for Svitolina:
Even during her remarkable comeback run in 2023 after maternity leave, Svitolina had never won 11 consecutive matches on clay – until now. Impressively, all these victories have come in straight sets.
This winning streak generates significant momentum for Sabalenka to contend with. While her head-to-head record against Sabalenka stands at 1-4, two of their three clay court matches went the distance to three sets.
“Played with Aryna a couple of times last year, had some tough battles,” Svitolina said, before knowing her opponent. “Also losing from the two match points in Rome, that was a big fight out there on the court. So, yeah, it’s going to be a big challenge, doesn`t matter [which player] I will be facing tomorrow.”
Svitolina, who turned 30 last autumn, is playing her best tennis since her 15-match winning streak in 2017. She leads the tour in wins on clay this year. Her most recent win was a decisive 6-2, 6-1 victory over the surprising Moyuka Uchijima. Svitolina won 30 of 45 points on her serve and broke Uchijima five times.
Notably, Svitolina has a history of elevating her game against reigning World No. 1 players. She holds a solid 7-7 record against them, and since 2000, only three women – Serena and Venus Williams and Lindsay Davenport – have achieved more victories in that scenario.
Svitolina is aware of her strong form and the discussions surrounding her resurgence.
“Keep winning, that`s what I`m hoping for,” she said.
“I have a tough challenge in the semifinal. I try to not focus too much on the numbers because sometimes they can be disturbing, but of course everyone and every conversation is mentioning that. I draw the confidence from all those statistics that I have.”
No. 2 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 4 Coco Gauff
The case for Swiatek:
Based on their historical record, the defending champion is the clear favorite in this matchup.
Swiatek has won nine consecutive matches in Madrid and 15 out of her last 16 dating back to her loss against Sabalenka in the 2023 final. While she hasn`t been entirely dominant by her usual high standards, dropping a set in three of her four matches this tournament, she has consistently found a way to prevail.
Crucially, she holds an 11-3 head-to-head advantage over Gauff.
On clay, her record against Gauff is a perfect 5-0, with all those matches taking place in Rome and Paris. It`s worth examining this further: Their first clay encounter was four years ago in Rome, where a 17-year-old Gauff put up a good fight before losing 7-6(3), 6-3. Since then, Gauff has not managed to win more than four games in any single set against Swiatek on clay.
Swiatek is known for delivering bagel sets (6-0 wins), but in her quarterfinal against Madison Keys, the roles were reversed. Sensing Keys was playing at an exceptionally high level in the first set, Swiatek remained calm. Keys, who made only two unforced errors in the first set, committed 33 over the final two sets. Swiatek, by contrast, made only 10 errors in those critical frames.
There`s no need to overcomplicate it. This is a four-time French Open champion playing on her preferred surface.
The case for Gauff:
She demonstrated resilience in her 7-5, 6-1 quarterfinal win over Mirra Andreeva, saving two set points in the first set.
One could view their challenging head-to-head record differently. Swiatek once led 11-1, but Gauff has won their last two meetings – both on hard courts, at the WTA Finals group stage and earlier this year at the United Cup in Australia.
What has changed?
“Just belief,” Gauff told reporters Wednesday. “In the beginning of our matchups, she was a top player, and I felt like I maybe kind of wrote myself off before the match even came. I don`t think about that head-to-head anymore. Now I just treat it as a new match, new opportunity each time.”
While she has yet to defeat Swiatek on clay, their previous encounters on the surface were in Paris and Rome, where the courts are notably slower than in Madrid.
Gauff`s defensive capabilities are always a strength; she and Swiatek are arguably the two best movers on the Hologic WTA Tour. She has been actively working on improving the consistency of her forehand and serve under coach Wim Fissette. Against Andreeva, Gauff lost only one point on her first serve in the second set (15 of 16) and saved two of four break points overall. She created 16 break opportunities against Andreeva and converted five.
After losing the first set of her opening match to Dayana Yastremska 6-0, she has won eight consecutive sets against increasingly difficult opponents. Having turned 21 last month, she has developed the physical strength needed to compete with Swiatek, as seen in their matches in Riyadh and Sydney.
“I always feel like I have a good chance against anybody I play. I lost the first set this tournament, 6-0, and everybody was like, `Ooh, she`s going to lose next round.’”
“I’m going to expect her to play some great tennis and probably her best tennis, and I`ll try to match that by playing my best tennis.”
Rupert Caldwell