Aryna Sabalenka has maintained her No. 1 WTA ranking for over five months and recently surpassed Madison Keys in the Race to the WTA Finals. This year, she has reached the final in four out of the six tournaments she has participated in, with the Miami Open championship match being her latest.
Is there anyone capable of halting Sabalenka`s powerful momentum in women`s tennis?
Jessica Pegula is next to try. She acknowledged the challenge, stating after her victory against Alexander Eala, “Aryna, another hard-court final for us. I believe I`m among the best hard-court players, but she`s likely the very best.”
Sabalenka has been incredibly dominant on the court at Hard Rock Stadium, consistently hitting winners even under pressure. Following her decisive win over Jasmine Paolini, Sabalenka admitted to being in top form.
Sabalenka is only the third woman to reach the finals of Indian Wells, Miami, and the Australian Open in the same season as the world`s top-ranked player, joining Steffi Graf (1994) and Martina Hingis (2000).
Sabalenka`s Advantage
Break points are crucial moments in tennis. Against Paolini, Sabalenka was exceptional, saving all break points against her serve and converting most of her own opportunities.
Her resilience is evident. Serving at 4-2 in the second set, facing break points against Paolini, Sabalenka responded with powerful serves and immediate winners. This exemplifies her aggressive and confident play.
Sabalenka has conceded only 23 games in her ten sets played, while Pegula has lost 44 games.
Mental strength, once considered Sabalenka’s weakness, now appears to be a significant asset on the WTA Tour.
Pegula won their first encounter five years ago in Cincinnati, but Sabalenka has won six of their last seven matches, all in straight sets.
Tennis Channel analyst Martina Navratilova suggests that Sabalenka is currently playing even stronger than at the US Open.
Sabalenka`s mindset is also a key factor. Despite an impressive 22-4 match record this year, her two losses in major finals—the Australian Open and Indian Wells—have fueled her determination.
“We never lose,” Sabalenka stated, “we only learn. Sometimes opponents play freely with nothing to lose, making it unpredictable.”
Sabalenka feels more prepared for this final, stating, “I really feel this time I’m going to do better than I did in the last two finals.”
Pegula`s Advantage
Could history be on Pegula`s side?
Pegula, at 31, is the third player aged 30 or older to reach the Miami Open women’s final in recent years, following Petra Kvitova (2023) and Danielle Collins (2024), both of whom won the title.
It might be her time to win a significant title in Miami.
This is Pegula’s third Miami Open semifinal, having previously lost at this stage to Iga Swiatek (2022) and Elena Rybakina (2023). Pegula has consistently achieved breakthroughs throughout her career. After six major quarterfinal losses, she reached the US Open final last year.
Pegula excels in these major 1000 events. This is her sixth final at this level. Of her seven career titles, three are from these elite tournaments: Guadalajara (2022), Montreal (2023), and Toronto (2024). Winning Miami would mark her fourth consecutive year with a 1000-level title.
Pegula reflects on her success at these tournaments, “I really don’t know what it is, but I’m glad that it happens at the 1000s — that’s always good. Big tournaments … I can win these big matches in clutch, pressure moment and come out on top. I’ll try to bring my best.”
Acknowledging her opponent, Pegula added, “One of the people that does it better than I do is maybe Aryna on Saturday, so I’m going to have a big battle.”
Despite a late-night finish to her semifinal, Pegula is physically fit and has ample time to recover for the final.
Remarkably, this is Pegula’s third WTA 1000 final after turning 30. Since 2009, only Serena Williams and Li Na have reached more at this age. Pegula is determined to maximize these opportunities late in her career.
She has the chance to become the oldest player to defeat the world No. 1 in a WTA final since Martina Navratilova in 1993.
Pegula concludes, “I think I can bring some different things maybe Saturday. I’m just going to play my game. I know I’ve had chances against her before, and I’ll aim to capitalize on them as much as possible.”
Rupert Caldwell