For NHL teams that missed the playoffs, Monday night`s Draft Lottery carries significance akin to the Stanley Cup stakes.
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the league`s first pick lottery, a process that has evolved significantly. Many might need a reminder of the current rules.
The lottery consists of two separate draws: one for the first overall selection and a second for the second overall pick.
Teams can only advance by a maximum of 10 positions in either draw. This means five teams participating in the lottery cannot possibly reach the No. 1 spot. These teams are Detroit (with a 2.5% chance to move up to #2), Columbus (2% to #3), Utah Hockey Club (1.5% to #4), Vancouver (0.5% to #5), and Calgary (0.5% to #6).
Should Calgary fail to move up the maximum 10 spots, its 16th overall pick will be transferred to Montreal.
With these five franchises excluded from claiming the first pick, 11 teams remain that have at least a small possibility – to quote Lloyd Christmas, “So you`re saying there`s a chance!” – of securing the top selection in the 2025 draft.
Notably, this year marks the first time the lottery ball drawing will be broadcast live. The event takes place at the NHL Network studio in Secaucus, N.J.
While team odds are the crucial factor for securing the top pick, we wanted to offer a more engaging perspective than just presenting the probabilities on the eve of this significant event.
Therefore, instead of ranking teams by their statistical likelihood of winning the top pick, we`re presenting them based on which team we believe *deserves* the first overall selection the most. Consider this a `Deserve to Win O`meter` for the draft lottery, based on a somewhat subjective and unscientific evaluation.
Factors considered include whether the team is due for some good luck, their commitment to a smart rebuild or retool, their recent and historical lottery fortune, and simply whether their win would be an exciting outcome.
Based on these considerations, we rank the 11 eligible teams from most to least deserving, anticipating which team might have the chance to announce, “With the first pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, we are proud to select…”
1. Philadelphia Flyers
Regular season finish: 29th overall
Odds of picking first: 9.5 per cent
The Flyers have never held the first overall selection in the NHL Entry Draft era, which began in 1979. Before that, during the NHL Amateur Draft, their only top pick was Mel Bridgman in 1974, 51 years ago.
In 2007, despite having the best odds, the Flyers were leapfrogged by the Blackhawks, who had the fifth-best chance. Three years later, the player Chicago drafted first in `07, Patrick Kane, scored the Cup-winning overtime goal against the Flyers in the 2010 series.
In 2017, the Flyers experienced fortunate luck, moving up 10 spots to claim the No. 2 pick. However, they chose center Nolan Patrick over defenseman Miro Heiskanen. Tragically, Patrick`s career was cut short prematurely due to persistent concussion issues.
Credit is due to the Flyers for making difficult, forward-thinking decisions as part of their rebuild over the last couple of years, all while maintaining competitive play for much of the season. In 2023, they took a calculated risk on Matvei Michkov at seventh overall. Surprisingly, he joined the lineup just one year after being drafted, much sooner than the anticipated three or more years.
Getting Michkov early was a fortunate turn, and this historic NHL franchise warrants another significant stroke of luck to aid its resurgence.>
2. Boston Bruins
Regular season finish: 28th overall
Odds of picking first: 8.5 per cent
The Bruins have been a consistently competitive team for the past 15 years. Even after their top two centers, Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, retired in the same summer, the Bruins successfully avoided a major decline, made the 2024 playoffs, and even won a round.
Perhaps they deserve a nice reward for all that sustained effort?
Furthermore, GM Don Sweeney deserves recognition for embracing a retooling strategy before the trade deadline once he recognized the season was slipping away. If Boston could complement its core of under-30 players like David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Jeremy Swayman with a first-overall pick, the team could quickly return to being highly competitive.
Boston`s most recent time picking first overall was in 1997 when they selected Joe Thornton.
3. Anaheim Ducks
Regular season finish: 25th overall
Odds of picking first: 6 per cent
Two decades later, it remains a sore point that the Ducks were one of the final two teams vying for Sidney Crosby but ended up with the second overall pick following the lost NHL season in the summer of 2005.
Anaheim, which began play in the 1993-94 season, has never had the privilege of selecting first overall. While the Ducks have picked in the top three in three of the last four drafts, it feels like this team is due for a lucky break.
The Ducks showed significant improvement this season, increasing their point total from 59 to 80. Adding another top-tier talent to their young core would make them a genuinely dangerous squad.
4. Seattle Kraken
Regular season finish: 27th overall
Odds of picking first: 7.5 per cent
On one hand, one might question whether a franchise that just fired its coach after a single year deserves a fortunate bounce.
Nevertheless, this relatively new fanbase is certainly ready for a genuine jolt of excitement. Matty Beniers, the team`s inaugural draft pick (second overall in 2021), won Rookie of the Year in 2023, but hasn`t quite lived up to that promise in the subsequent seasons. Shane Wright, who surprisingly fell to Seattle at No. 4 in 2022, has shown potential but isn`t yet a player who consistently provides breathtaking moments.
Kraken supporters, who have now watched four seasons of hockey, could really use an injection of energy.
5. San Jose Sharks
Regular season finish: 32nd overall
Odds of picking first: 25.5 per cent
It might seem peculiar to rank the team that just selected first overall last June so highly, but the Sharks, under GM Mike Grier, have been executing their rebuild effectively, and it would be exciting to see it accelerated. Macklin Celebrini was also the first ever No. 1 overall pick in Sharks history.
San Jose spent most of this century as a highly competitive team, making the playoffs every season but one between 2004 and 2019. However, they never managed to capture the Stanley Cup during that period, and another top draft talent could potentially help change that.
A reminder: As the team finishing last overall, the Sharks don`t necessarily have to *win* the first lottery draw to secure the top pick. If the lottery is won by one of the five teams ineligible to move all the way up to No. 1, San Jose would then pick first. So, while the Sharks have an 18.5% chance to win the first draw outright, their overall chance of selecting first overall is 25.5%.
Last year, the Sharks actually won both the first and second draws, necessitating a re-draw for the second pick, which was won by the Blackhawks.>
6. Nashville Predators
Regular season finish: 30th overall
Odds of picking first: 11.5 per cent
One might consider ranking Nashville lower as a consequence for their lavish spending last summer, followed by immediately faltering.
Do they deserve to be bailed out from that situation?
That being said, how many sports fans wish their team owner would spend a bit more freely? And while the spending spree orchestrated by GM Barry Trotz was a significant departure from the approach taken by his predecessor, David Poile, you have to give Trotz some credit for taking a bold swing.
Of course, it`s also true that the Preds were a model of consistency for years under Poile. Nashville has never picked first overall and has only selected within the top five twice (David Legwand, second in 1998, and Seth Jones, fourth in 2013).
A Predators win is definitely something we could appreciate seeing.
7. New York Islanders
Regular season finish: 23rd overall
Odds of picking first: 3.5 per cent
The Islanders were resistant to taking a step back under former GM Lou Lamoriello, but new leadership is now in place after the franchise parted ways with the legendary executive.
Fresh start, first pick?
The Islanders` most recent No. 1 pick, John Tavares, departed as a free agent in the summer of 2018. Impressively, the club managed to remain highly competitive – reaching the playoff final four in back-to-back years – in the wake of Tavares`s departure.
However, New York hasn`t won a playoff round since 2021 and has now missed the postseason in two of the last four years. This is a team in need of a spark.
Lamoriello left a positive asset in the form of prospect Calum Ritchie, acquired from the Avalanche when the Islanders traded Brock Nelson ahead of the deadline.
Adding a top draft pick to the prospect pipeline alongside Ritchie would truly signal renewed excitement on Long Island.
8. Pittsburgh Penguins
Regular season finish: 24th overall
Odds of picking first: 5 per cent
One could make a case for ranking Pittsburgh higher, but there is also something fundamentally problematic about the way this club has operated over the past couple of years.
An actual rebuild has never been seriously considered, and if their current approach is intended as a retool, the outlook is not promising.
Additionally, as noted earlier, the Penguins still have a player wearing No. 87 in their lineup who arrived via an all-time fortunate lottery win in 2005 and helped secure three Stanley Cups.
Nevertheless, there would be some interesting symmetry in seeing Crosby conclude his final seasons playing alongside a potential `next one` in Pittsburgh.
9. Chicago Blackhawks
Regular season finish: 31st overall
Odds of picking first: 13.5 per cent
The Blackhawks recently benefited from a lottery win in 2023 that propelled them to the No. 1 spot despite having the third-best odds. And make no mistake, landing Connor Bedard that year was a massive victory for the franchise.
Six years ago, in 2019, the Blackhawks jumped all the way up to No. 3 (selecting Kirby Dach) despite finishing 20th in the NHL. It strongly feels like Chicago has already exhausted a significant amount of its lottery luck in recent springs.
10. Buffalo Sabres
Regular season finish: 26th overall
Odds of picking first: 6.5 per cent
The Sabres have selected first overall twice in the last six years, picking Rasmus Dahlin in 2018 and Owen Power in 2021. Unless you believe they are still owed some luck for not securing Connor McDavid in 2015 despite having a 20% chance, it`s reasonable to agree the Sabres have had their fair share of high draft picks.
They have also endured more than their fair share of losing, missing the playoffs for 14 consecutive seasons now.
Do fans in Western New York deserve better? Absolutely. But it feels somewhat counterintuitive to reward an organization that has experienced so much recent failure with another top pick.
11. New York Rangers
Regular season finish: 22nd overall
Odds of picking first: 3 per cent
The Rangers face a decision here because they owe either this year`s first-round pick or their 2026 first-round pick to Pittsburgh. This situation arose from a series of transactions, starting with the Rangers sending a conditional first-round pick to Vancouver for J.T. Miller, and then the Canucks forwarding that conditional pick to Pittsburgh in the trade for Marcus Pettersson.
Naturally, if the Rangers win the lottery, the decision to send next year`s pick becomes an obvious one.
The Rangers moved up four spots to select second overall in 2019 and then leaped all the way to No. 1 the following season. The pandemic-shortened 2019-20 campaign led the league to modify the lottery format, resulting in a Blueshirts team that finished 37-28-5 picking Alexis Lafreniere first overall.
Even if they hadn`t used up considerable lottery luck in those years, it doesn`t feel like this team – coming off a dramatic and incredibly disappointing season – deserves any good fortune this time around.
Tristan Blackwood