While it might feel like Nikolaj Ehlers has already hit the 30-goal mark in a season, it`s a milestone he hasn`t quite reached yet in reality.
During his third year with the Winnipeg Jets, Ehlers scored 29 goals, hinting that he was on track to become a consistent 30-goal scorer.
In his mid-twenties, Ehlers displayed a scoring rate closer to 40 goals per season (tracking towards 37 in 2020-21 and 2021-22). However, injuries and the pandemic reduced the number of games the Danish winger played, resulting in totals of 21 goals in 47 games and 28 goals in 62 games during those years.
Most recently, in what could have been his last season with the Jets, Ehlers maintained a 29-goal pace despite missing 13 games.
Injuries have been a recurring issue throughout Ehlers` time in Manitoba, a factor potential suitors will undoubtedly consider as he approaches unrestricted free agency.
Another notable point is that Ehlers hasn`t consistently received significant ice time when he is in the Jets` lineup.
Over the last three seasons, the 29-year-old has averaged less than 16 minutes of ice time per game. Five other Jets forwards (Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Gabe Vilardi, Mason Appleton, and Nino Niederreiter) averaged more five-on-five time than Ehlers` 13:18 during this period.
Despite limited ice time, Ehlers has demonstrated his offensive impact, ranking second on the team in points per 60 minutes this season (2.10), and first in both the previous year (2.62) and the 2021-22 season (2.56).
Could joining a new team lead to more ice time and finally allow him to break the 30-goal mark? This is a distinct possibility depending on his destination.
Naturally, the Jets would prefer to keep Ehlers. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff stated his wish for Ehlers to remain a `Jet for life` after their playoff exit. The team also secured defenseman Neal Pionk at the end of the regular season.
However, negotiations with Ehlers are expected to be more complex than those with Pionk. With free agency starting in under three weeks, it`s worth exploring which teams might be aggressively pursuing Ehlers on July 1st.
Carolina Hurricanes
With significant salary cap space and a clear need for increased scoring, particularly in the playoffs, the Hurricanes are likely to be interested in any goal-scoring free agent. Raleigh is an attractive city for players, and the team is competitive – a likely positive for Ehlers, who is accustomed to a winning environment in Winnipeg. Bringing in a high-profile UFA like Ehlers to boost offense suggests he would receive significant ice time. A potential downside for Ehlers could be if he doesn`t play on the top line with Sebastian Aho, possibly finding himself in a similar situation to Winnipeg with only one elite center that he might not be linemates with.
Los Angeles Kings
While the Kings` recent playoff success has been limited to first-round exits (unlike Carolina reaching the conference final), they are a solid team aiming to win now. With new GM Ken Holland and the appeal of the California lifestyle, Los Angeles is an interesting possibility. The Kings have qualified for the playoffs four consecutive times (each time losing to Edmonton in the first round) and ranked 20th in goals per game (3.09) over that span. Their offense could benefit from Ehlers` dynamic ability and high-end speed.
Boston Bruins
Boston possesses considerable salary cap flexibility. Following a less successful season, there`s potential for the Bruins to contend for a playoff spot again. Beyond David Pastrnak, the team lacks high-end forward talent. Like Pastrnak and defenseman Charlie McAvoy, the under-30 Ehlers is expected to remain a high-impact player for the majority of the potentially seven-year contract he might sign as a free agent.
Utah Mammoth
The newly established Utah franchise (referred to here as the Mammoth, though the name is pending) is anticipated to be highly active this summer. Their fourth-overall draft pick is reportedly available for trade for an impact NHL player, though such a deal might be challenging. Regardless of any draft trades, Utah is expected to be a major player in the free agent market. While not yet a playoff team, they could potentially convince Ehlers that he, combined with other additions, could help them become a Western Conference playoff contender.
New York Islanders
Although not among the top contenders expected to be major players this summer, the Islanders could still attempt a significant free agent signing. New GM Mathieu Darche aims to return the team to the playoffs, not rebuild. A persistent challenge for the Islanders has been generating sufficient offense to secure victories. While prospects like Cole Eiserman and Calum Ritchie could aid the offense in the future, adding Ehlers would provide an immediate impact, and he could easily fit into a long-term top-six role on Long Island.
Montreal Canadiens
While Montreal`s primary need is a second-line center, any improvement to secondary scoring would be beneficial. The Canadiens already have prospect Ivan Demidov expected to boost their offense, and adding a player of Ehlers` caliber could help Montreal compete for a playoff spot in future seasons against improving Eastern Conference teams. Ehlers is friends with former Jet and current Hab Patrik Laine, although Laine`s future in Montreal is uncertain with only one year remaining on his contract.
New York Rangers
The trade sending Chris Kreider to Anaheim has freed up enough salary cap space to consider the Rangers, despite the team needing to address restricted free agents Will Cuylle and K’Andre Miller. The Rangers are expected to be aggressive this summer following a disappointing 11th-place finish in the Eastern Conference.
Tristan Blackwood