Like death and taxes, another certainty in life is speculation about Max Verstappen`s teammate`s future with Red Bull.
Liam Lawson`s difficult beginning as a Red Bull driver has fueled rumors of his potential replacement after only two races. Following Lawson`s 15th-place finish at the Chinese Grand Prix, which became 12th due to disqualifications ahead, team principal Christian Horner avoided dismissing rumors that Lawson could be replaced by Racing Bulls` Yuki Tsunoda before the Japanese Grand Prix on April 6.
`Everything is just speculation right now,` Horner stated in Shanghai. `We`ve just finished the race. We`ll review the data and analyze it thoroughly… Liam still has potential, but we aren`t seeing it currently.`
A driver change for Red Bull`s final race with Honda in Japan would be a significant development, potentially offering Tsunoda a long-awaited opportunity with the main team. It would also highlight Red Bull`s inconsistent driver decisions, except for Verstappen.
A decision is expected this week.
If Lawson is replaced, Red Bull would be admitting they judged him too quickly after only two races, despite claiming 11 races were enough to assess him last year. Meanwhile, Tsunoda`s four years of experience and consistent performance were seemingly insufficient until now. The situation is perplexing.
Regardless of the outcome, the early speculation about Lawson`s position indicates a problem. Even with a poor start, judging a driver after two races is unreasonable. This situation continues a pattern for Red Bull Racing, raising questions about their driver program.
Lawson Under Pressure
Despite only two races, Lawson appears to be struggling at Red Bull. His performance has been difficult to watch.
Lawson, and any driver in the second Red Bull seat, faces major challenges: Verstappen`s exceptional talent, Red Bull`s challenging car (which Verstappen manages to overcome), and the precedent set by previous drivers.
After Daniel Ricciardo`s 2019 departure, Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon, also from Red Bull`s program, struggled. Sergio Pérez, an experienced driver, was then hired. While initially strong, his performance declined. The gap between Verstappen and the second Red Bull driver became a recurring joke, continuing with Lawson`s initial races.
Lawson faced challenges from the start. Preseason testing issues limited his track time, and his debut race was at a new circuit for him. China was simply a difficult weekend, common for new drivers. These aren`t excuses, as many would desire Lawson`s opportunity, but they are contributing factors.
Public perception also plays a role. Lawson hasn`t gained widespread fan support, facing negativity from F1 fans.
Replacing popular drivers Ricciardo and Pérez, Lawson inherited fanbases seemingly pleased with his struggles. Despite taking opportunities given to him, fan sentiment is against him.
Beating Tsunoda, considered by many more deserving, Lawson is viewed as an undeserving replacement in Red Bull`s driver decisions. His recent comments haven`t helped.
`I outperformed Tsunoda in F3, Euroformula, and New Zealand,` Lawson stated. `Considering past promotions he received over me, it’s now my turn.`
On-track incidents also occurred. Fernando Alonso criticized Lawson`s aggressive racing at the U.S. Grand Prix. In Mexico, Lawson raced Pérez closely, making a gesture after the race. While his racing style contributed to his promotion, the gesture was privately addressed by Red Bull.
Yuki`s Situation
While Lawson struggled in Shanghai, Helmut Marko praised Tsunoda`s development.
`Yuki is performing at his peak,` Marko noted. `He is more mature, with a new approach and management. It took time, but it`s working.`
Lawson`s poor start contrasts with Tsunoda`s strong performances. Despite strategic errors costing him points, Tsunoda has maintained a consistently high level of performance.
Christian Horner and Liam Lawson discuss his early difficulties at Red Bull.
Red Bull`s reluctance to promote Tsunoda to the main team is puzzling. Tsunoda embodies the success Red Bull`s junior program aims to achieve.
Tsunoda has developed into a fast, consistent driver during his four years with the second team, improving his teamwork and communication. Addressing past criticisms of his radio communication, Tsunoda has matured.
He is now the most experienced driver in the team. Lawson, in contrast, lacks consistent seat time. Both deserved consistent opportunities within the Red Bull system.
With Tsunoda`s contract expiring, promoting him for 2025 would be beneficial. He could either perform well alongside Verstappen or join the list of drivers who couldn`t match him. In the latter case, Red Bull could then confidently promote Lawson or Hadjar, or look to Lindblad for the future.
However, the current situation is complex. Replacing Lawson now could damage his confidence, while Tsunoda would face pressure in a potentially difficult car. These factors will be considered when Horner makes his decision this week. If Red Bull believes Lawson`s struggles will continue, they might opt for an early driver change, learning from past experiences.
Rupert Caldwell 
Tristan Blackwood