With a comfortable lead for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, the Ottawa Senators are focusing on finalizing their player lineups for the postseason. While their playoff entry isn`t officially confirmed, projections strongly suggest their participation. The team is now working to establish the most effective forward lines and defensive pairings to enhance their chances in the first round of the playoffs.
In a recent 4-3 victory over the Detroit Red Wings, Coach Travis Green experimented with the forward lines. He reunited Brady Tkachuk with Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig, and paired veteran Claude Giroux with Tim Stutzle and Fabian Zetterlund. This adjustment led to four goals scored during five-on-five play, an aspect of the game the Senators have been striving to improve throughout the season, and one that becomes even more critical in the playoffs.
Currently, the Senators are ranked 28th in the league for five-on-five goals per game, a lower rank than any other team currently holding a playoff position. However, these recent line adjustments suggest a potential solution to unlock greater offensive capabilities across the team`s lineup.
The pairing of Zetterlund and Stutzle has developed a strong on-ice connection. Their off-ice relationship, as roommates, has translated to immediate chemistry on the ice since they were first put together on March 20 against Colorado.
Together, they have significantly influenced the game`s flow in Ottawa`s favor during five-on-five situations. They have out-chanced opponents 31-12 and accounted for 65.17 percent of expected goals during their time together. Their contribution was evident in Ottawa`s two first-period goals in the Thursday game, which gave the team an early 2-0 advantage.
Although Tkachuk was involved in Stutzle`s first goal of the game, he spent limited time, just over a minute, playing with Stutzle and Zetterlund against Detroit. Tkachuk`s impact is significant on any line, but his presence is particularly valuable when playing with Pinto and Greig. This configuration helps to distribute Ottawa`s scoring potential more evenly across different lines.
Tkachuk, Pinto, and Greig have previously played together earlier in the season, from late December to early January. They proved to be a productive unit during a period when other lines were struggling to score. Statistically, the Tkachuk-Pinto-Greig line has an expected goals share of 61.8 percent for the season and out-attempted the Red Wings 15-8 in their recent game.
Meanwhile, the line of David Perron, Dylan Cozens, and Drake Batherson continues to perform strongly. Perron scored his seventh goal in March, solidifying their status as potentially the team`s top-performing line currently.
If Tkachuk can maintain the effectiveness of the Pinto-Greig line, and the Zetterlund-Stutzle duo, now with Giroux, continues their strong play, the Senators will pose a scoring threat across three lines. This line configuration may represent Ottawa`s best approach to address their consistent weakness in five-on-five scoring and increase their chances of achieving a playoff upset.
On the defensive side, Coach Green introduced Nikolas Mantinpalo into the lineup, replacing Travis Hamonic. This adjustment may represent Ottawa`s optimal defensive arrangement for the playoffs.
Mantinpalo and Tyler Kleven performed steadily against the Red Wings, indicating they could be the strongest third defensive pairing for Ottawa. Statistically, Mantinpalo has a lower expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (2.53) compared to Hamonic (2.72). The Kleven-Mantinpalo pairing has conceded eight goals in 256 minutes of five-on-five play, while the Kleven-Hamonic pairing has allowed 11 goals in just 190 minutes.
The data suggests that the Kleven-Mantinpalo pairing is currently more effective.
Coach Green emphasizes flexibility in line and pairing adjustments, maintaining that changes can be made quickly. However, the recent game provided further evidence that Ottawa has a specific lineup that maximizes both offensive output and defensive stability.
Improved Penalty Killing
The Senators successfully killed five penalties within the first 22 minutes of the Thursday game and scored twice shortly after returning to full strength.
Ottawa`s penalty kill demonstrated resilience, showing improvement recently after fluctuating performance throughout the season. Before the trade deadline, their penalty kill was ranked 22nd in the league but has since improved to 11th, contributing to the team`s improved record of 8-3-1 during this period. A point of vulnerability has been the right side of the penalty kill unit, particularly noticeable during Nick Jensen`s absence in four of the last 12 games.
Jensen and his defensive partner Thomas Chabot have the best goals-allowed rate per 60 minutes on the penalty kill among Senators defensive pairings.
With Jensen in the lineup since the deadline, Ottawa had successfully killed 14 consecutive penalties until Patrick Kane scored in the third period of the Thursday game, a penalty kill situation Jensen was not part of. In contrast, during the four games Jensen missed post-deadline, the Senators allowed four goals in 12 shorthanded situations.
Struggling to Maintain Leads: A Growing Concern
Leading into a game against the Leafs about two weeks prior, the Senators had a strong record of 25-1-1 when holding a lead into the third period. However, since March 15, in the four games where Ottawa led after 40 minutes, they have been outscored 9-2 and outshot 51-24 in the third periods.
Despite this trend, the team managed to win three of these four games. However, this late-season difficulty in maintaining leads is a concerning development that needs to be addressed before the playoffs begin, particularly when facing division-winning opponents.