Comebacks are common in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. However, rallying from a 3-0 deficit? That`s exceedingly rare. But bouncing back from being down 3-1 happens more often than one might expect. In fact, in 9.2% of all instances where a series reached 3-1 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the team trailing managed to win. The Senators` current opponents have already suffered such a loss this decade: in 2021, the Toronto Maple Leafs squandered a 3-1 lead against the Montreal Canadiens in the opening round.
Forward Nick Cousins stated before Game 5, “We can`t win the series tomorrow.” The team feels that, despite the current score, the series is being played at their pace. They believe that if they continue to play correctly, they can make this “Battle of Ontario” more exciting. Coach Travis Green agreed, saying, “I think if you asked us at the start of the series how we wanted it to look, it would probably look a lot like it has. And honestly, it could easily be two-two.”
Ottawa`s most veteran player, Claude Giroux, still holds onto hope. He personally experienced a 3-0 playoff comeback with the Philadelphia Flyers in 2010. “We lost the first three games, but we felt like it could have gone either way,” Giroux recalled. Can finally winning an overtime game shift the team`s perspective for the series? Perhaps. “It gives us a little more belief,” Giroux added.
After four games, statistics show the Senators have more shots, more scoring chances, and more high-danger scoring chances, yet they trail 3-1. “Sometimes, one or two plays really make the difference,” Green commented. That`s the nature of hockey, a game where a single bounce can be decisive. So far, Toronto has been capitalizing on these moments, boasting the second-highest shooting percentage in the playoffs (15%). This figure is likely to decrease, as it did in Game 4 when it was nearly halved to eight percent. That explains why the Senators won that game.
When the Senators fell behind 3-0, captain Brady Tkachuk referenced the 2004 Boston Red Sox baseball team. Like the Senators, the Red Sox were seen as the “little brother” consistently losing to their “bigger brother,” the New York Yankees. What happened to the Red Sox in 2004? Boston achieved a historic “reverse sweep” against the Yankees, coming back from a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS to win the series en route to their first World Series title in 86 years. There are distinct parallels with the current “Battle of Ontario,” given that the Senators have never defeated the Maple Leafs in a playoff series.
Cousins outlined a plan, reminiscent of how former Red Sox first baseman Kevin Millar`s confidence willed his team`s comeback into existence in 2004. “Win one game, make them come back to Ottawa,” Cousins said. “And then use our crowd to our advantage for Game 6, win that one, and then anything can happen in Game 7.”
If the Senators maintain the level of play they`ve shown so far in the playoffs, they have a real chance to win Game 5 and add some significant drama to this series. The path forward is clear, but reaching the summit will be a tremendous challenge for the Senators.
Warm-up Gate Aftermath
It seems the “warm-up incident” is now behind us. Or so we think. After Cousins “shot” pucks towards his good friend, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz, during the warm-ups before Game 3, the league issued fines: $25,000 to the Senators and $2,083.33 to Cousins. Cousins spoke to the media for the first time since the event.
With a knowing smile, he offered the typical “hockey answer” regarding the fine: “Excited to kind of move on past that.” Cousins was asked if he was surprised by the penalty, especially since Stolarz himself admitted he hadn`t even noticed Cousins shooting a puck near him during warmups. “Was I surprised? That`s a trick question, isn`t it?” Cousins quipped. He later conceded he was “maybe a little bit” surprised by the fine. Just high-level playoff antics.
Nonetheless, Cousins claims he knows how to get under his former teammate`s skin. The two ex-Florida Panthers players talk weekly, but their friendship is on hold during the playoffs. Stolarz`s performance faltered slightly in Game 4, and the Senators are hoping the “warm-up gate” drama might start affecting the Toronto netminder`s mental game. “I mean, clearly shooting pucks at him isn`t the play, because he`s been lights out for them,” Cousins remarked.
Tristan Blackwood