The excitement of the Stanley Cup Playoffs` first round is partly due to the possibility of underdogs defeating top regular-season teams.
Considering this, we`ll examine all eight first-round series, ranking them from the most unpredictable to the most predictable, according to BetMGM`s betting odds.
Eastern Conference Series
Tampa Bay (-105) vs. Florida (-115)
These intrastate rivals had nearly identical regular-season records and split their season series. Their playoff matchup is expectedly the closest in betting terms. A key factor could be Nikita Kucherov, who plays for the underdog Lightning. Kucherov, the league`s points leader, seeks revenge after Florida eliminated Tampa Bay in 2024. He is also favored (+550) to be the series` top scorer, although Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel, both 40-goal scorers, are attractive options at +650.
Toronto (-190) vs. Ottawa (+155)
The Battle of Ontario returns to the playoffs after over 20 years, with significant pressure on Toronto. Ottawa is simply happy to be participating after a long playoff drought. While Toronto is arguably the better team on paper, for those who believe in playoff unpredictability for the Maple Leafs, BetMGM offers odds of +550 for the Senators to win in seven games, potentially on Toronto`s home ice. Such an outcome would be a bitter pill for Leafs fans.
Winnipeg (-220) vs. St. Louis (+180)
Despite a 56-win season and the Presidents’ Trophy, oddsmakers are not convinced Winnipeg is a lock to advance. This might be influenced by their previous first-round exit or St. Louis` strong play in March and April. Winnipeg`s Alex Iafallo emphasized the importance of a strong start and aggressive mindset, indicating the team is focused on progressing to the next round.
Carolina (-250) vs. New Jersey (+200)
Carolina is favored despite finishing only eight points ahead of New Jersey in the regular season. To upset Carolina, New Jersey would need to excel on power plays, rely on strong goaltending from Jacob Markstrom reminiscent of Martin Brodeur, and have unexpected players step up due to Jack Hughes`s injury. Nico Hischier is a potential candidate to lead in scoring at +600 odds.
Washington (-270) vs. Montreal (+210)
BetMGM considers this the most uneven first-round series. Montreal barely made the playoffs with a negative goal differential and is seen as a significant underdog. However, Montreal enters with momentum, while Washington`s form dipped towards the end of the season. An unfavorable shooting percentage regression for Washington could open the door for a Montreal upset, though most experts predict Washington to advance easily.
Western Conference Series
Los Angeles (+100) vs. Edmonton (-120)
These teams face off again. Despite being the underdog, Los Angeles might have their best chance yet to overcome Edmonton led by Connor McDavid. While Edmonton has superior top-tier offensive talent, Los Angeles has greater overall offensive depth and a slightly better defense, especially with Edmonton`s Mattias Ekholm injured. Los Angeles seems better prepared to defend against McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. However, Edmonton is a strong contender to win the Stanley Cup (+950), and McDavid is favored to win the Conn Smythe Trophy (+1300). Betting on Los Angeles is a bet against these odds.
Dallas (+135) vs. Colorado (-160)
This is a highly anticipated first-round matchup. Colorado is a Stanley Cup co-favorite (+750), while Dallas is also a strong contender (+850). Colorado’s strength is built around stars like Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. However, Dallas has scoring threats throughout their top lines, a motivated Mikko Rantanen playing against his former team, and a potent power play. This series is considered the most likely to go to seven games, with even odds (+260) on two games going to overtime.
Las Vegas (-250) vs. Minnesota (+200)
The rested Golden Knights are favored against Minnesota, considered one of the weaker playoff teams. With a strong power play and deep roster, Las Vegas is heavily favored. Minnesota`s main threat is Kirill Kaprizov. The most probable outcome, according to BetMGM, is Las Vegas winning in five games (+350). A Minnesota series win in seven games offers a high payout (+600) for those betting on a major upset.
Tristan Blackwood