Many NHL teams currently outside the playoff picture, especially in the Eastern Conference, believe they still have a chance to fight their way into a playoff position.
But realistically, how many teams can actually achieve this?
Using data from SN Stats and the NHL, we examine teams that have made significant comebacks to secure a playoff berth within the final 10 games of the regular season over the past 20 years (since the salary cap era began).
Since the 2005-06 season, 11 teams have reached the playoffs after being at least three points out of a playoff spot within their last 10 regular season games. Twice, teams have overcome a five-point deficit in this crucial period, marking the largest comebacks.
Currently, seven teams outside the playoff positions are entering their final 10 games of the season. As more teams reach this stage, we`ll look back at historical examples of teams overcoming a three-point or greater deficit to make the playoffs, analyzing how they did it and their subsequent playoff performance.
FIVE POINTS BEHIND
2013-14 Dallas Stars
Situation: With 10 games remaining, the Stars were five points out of a playoff spot with a 34-27-11 record. The Arizona Coyotes held the second wild-card spot in the West with eight games left, and no other teams were between them in the standings.
Schedule: Dallas had a mixed schedule with six road games and four home games, including three sets of back-to-back games. Their record in the last 10 games was decent at 6-4-0, although they lost three of their last five in regulation.
Outcome: The Stars` comeback was aided by the Coyotes` poor performance. Arizona went winless in seven games from March 29 to April 12, gaining only three points from overtime losses. Despite Arizona winning their final game against Dallas 2-1, it was inconsequential as Dallas had already clinched a playoff spot. Arizona struggled to score, while Dallas`s offense surged. Dallas secured the second wild card.
In the first round, the Stars faced the top-seeded Anaheim Ducks and lost in six games.
2023-24 New York Islanders
Situation: With nine games left, the Islanders were five points away from a playoff spot. The Washington Capitals held the second wild card, and the Islanders also needed to pass the Detroit Red Wings, who were three points ahead.
Schedule: The Islanders had a favorable schedule with five of their last nine games at home and only one back-to-back. They won both games in that back-to-back and seven of their last eight overall, with their only loss in that stretch being a shootout loss to the Rangers.
Outcome: The Islanders` strong finish allowed them to not just make the playoffs but also climb to the third seed in the Metropolitan Division. This was partly due to slumps from the Capitals and Flyers. The Flyers particularly collapsed, losing eight straight games.
The Islanders finished comfortably ahead of Washington and played the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round, losing in five games.
FOUR POINTS BEHIND
2005-06 San Jose Sharks
Situation: With 10 games remaining, the Sharks were four points out of a playoff spot in the West, just behind the Edmonton Oilers.
This was before the wild card era, and division winners were guaranteed a top-three seed.
Schedule: The Sharks had a busy schedule of 10 games in 17 days, split evenly between home and road games, including three back-to-back sets. They were perfect in back-to-backs, going 6-0. Their only April losses were an OT loss and a meaningless regulation loss after clinching a playoff spot.
Outcome: The Sharks surged to second in their division and fifth in the Western Conference. Vancouver`s poor finish (4-4-2 in their last 10) allowed San Jose to surpass them and comfortably make the playoffs.
San Jose won their first-round series against Nashville in five games but lost to Edmonton in the second round in six games.
2007-08 Washington Capitals
Situation: Washington was four points behind Philadelphia for the final playoff spot with 10 games left. Buffalo was also ahead of them. Carolina led the division by five points.
Schedule: The Capitals faced a challenging six-game road trip, but many were against division rivals. Washington excelled against their division, winning nine of their last 10 games and all seven against Southeast Division opponents, including two crucial wins against Carolina.
Outcome: The Capitals` strong run led them to win the Southeast Division and secure the third seed in the East. They faced Philadelphia in the first round and lost in seven games after leading the series.
2018-19 Colorado Avalanche
Situation: The Avalanche were four points out of the second wild-card spot in the West with 10 games remaining. Arizona, Minnesota, and Chicago were ahead of them.
Schedule: Colorado`s schedule included five home games, five road games, and two back-to-back sets. They directly played each of the teams they were chasing, getting crucial wins.
Outcome: Colorado`s 7-1-2 finish was outstanding. Arizona, Chicago, and Minnesota faltered, allowing Colorado to comfortably clinch the last wild-card spot.
Colorado upset Calgary in the first round in five games but lost to San Jose in seven games in the second round.
2007-08 Nashville Predators
Situation: Similar to Washington that season, Nashville was four points out of the playoffs but with only six games left. Colorado held the last spot, with Vancouver and Edmonton also in the mix.
Schedule: Nashville had a tough schedule with four of six games on the road, including a game against Detroit, the Presidents` Trophy winners. However, the rest were against non-playoff teams.
Outcome: Nashville went 4-1-1, but Vancouver`s collapse was key. Vancouver lost seven of their last eight games, allowing Nashville to sneak into the playoffs.
Nashville faced Detroit in the first round and lost in six games, despite making it a competitive series.
2006-07 New York Islanders
Situation: On April 4, 2007, the Islanders were three points out of a playoff spot with only three games left. Montreal and Toronto were ahead of them.
After a prior good position, a four-game losing streak put them in a difficult spot.
Schedule: The Islanders` final three games were at home against Toronto, and then on the road against Philadelphia and New Jersey.
Outcome: The Islanders won all three remaining games to leapfrog Toronto and Montreal and clinch the final playoff spot dramatically with a shootout win against New Jersey in their last game.
They faced Buffalo in the first round and lost in five games.
THREE POINTS BEHIND
2018-19 Columbus Blue Jackets
Situation: With eight games left, Columbus was three points behind Montreal for the second wild card and had a game in hand. They were on a three-game losing streak, while Montreal was winning.
Schedule: Columbus had a road-heavy schedule with five of eight games away and two back-to-backs on the road. They won all five road games.
Outcome: Columbus`s 7-1-0 finish was enough to overtake Montreal. They clinched a playoff spot before the very end of the season.
This season was notable for Columbus keeping pending free agents at the trade deadline and then stunningly sweeping the Tampa Bay Lightning, who had the best regular season record, in the first round.
They lost to Boston in the second round in six games.
2022-23 Florida Panthers
Situation: The Panthers were struggling, having lost four straight games and their goalie Sergei Bobrovsky to injury. With eight games left, they were three points behind Pittsburgh for the last wild card.
Schedule: Florida`s schedule was balanced with four home games and one back-to-back set early in the stretch. They didn`t play Pittsburgh directly.
Outcome: Backup goalie Alex Lyon stepped up, winning his first two starts against Toronto and Montreal, starting a six-game win streak. Pittsburgh`s late loss to Chicago clinched a playoff spot for Florida with a game to spare.
The Panthers, as the eighth seed, went on an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final, defeating Boston, Toronto, and Carolina before losing to Vegas in the Final. This run significantly raised the franchise`s profile and set the stage for a Stanley Cup win the following season.
2012-13 Detroit Red Wings
Situation: In a shortened season, Detroit had four games left and trailed Minnesota and Columbus by three points. They had games in hand.
Schedule: Detroit had a favorable schedule with three of four games at home and a home back-to-back. Opponents were mostly non-playoff teams.
Outcome: Detroit won all four of their remaining games to clinch a playoff spot, edging out Minnesota and Columbus.
Detroit defeated Anaheim in the first round in seven games but lost to Chicago in the second round in seven games. Chicago won the Stanley Cup that year.
2014-15 Ottawa Senators
Situation: With four games left, Ottawa was ninth in the East, trailing Boston, Detroit, and Pittsburgh by three points. However, they were on a hot streak, fueled by goalie Andrew Hammond`s “Hamburglar” run.
Schedule: Ottawa had three road games in seven days, facing Pittsburgh among others.
Outcome: Despite an initial shootout loss, Ottawa won their final three games to secure a wild card spot, surpassing Boston, who collapsed and missed the playoffs. Hammond`s incredible run was key to this comeback.
Ottawa lost to Montreal in the first round in six games.
Tristan Blackwood