Following a dominant 7-2 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers, the Toronto Maple Leafs have climbed to the top of the Atlantic Division. This isn`t just based on overall points, but crucially, they lead in the tiebreaker category of “Regulation/Overtime Wins.” This “ROW” advantage could be significant if point totals and regulation wins remain tight among the top teams.
Beyond these initial tiebreakers, playoff seeding is further determined by total wins, then head-to-head record points, and finally, goal difference.
While Ottawa is currently positioned as Wild Card 1, it`s still a competitive race. The second Wild Card spot is fiercely contested, and even a slight downturn could bring Ottawa back into the thick of that battle. While a playoff miss for Ottawa seems unlikely, it`s not impossible they could slip to the second Wild Card.
Currently, projections suggest the Maple Leafs are most likely to face the Senators in the first round (around 40% probability). The odds of a matchup against the Lightning are just under that (approximately 35%), and the Panthers are seen as a less probable opponent (around 20%). These figures are based on recent data-driven hockey projections.
So, considering these three potential opponents, let`s discuss who would be the most favorable matchup for Toronto. What are the potential advantages and disadvantages of facing each of these teams in the opening round?
Let`s analyze each team.
Ottawa Senators
Despite the opinions of some, like Leafs fan Sam McKee on the “Real Kyper and Bourne” show, Ottawa appears to be the team Toronto would ideally want to play in the first round out of these three. While McKee worries about the potential public embarrassment of losing to Ottawa, compared to a more expected loss against Florida teams, the Senators present a less experienced challenge.
Why the Leafs Might Prefer Ottawa: Inexperience is a key factor. The Senators` roster contains fewer players with Stanley Cup winning experience compared to the Panthers and Lightning, who have recent deep playoff runs. The Senators also have a slightly younger average age than their Florida counterparts.
Ottawa`s starting goalie, Linus Ullmark, has limited playoff experience with only 10 games and a less-than-stellar .887 save percentage and a 3-6-0 record. His performance can be inconsistent.
Looking at their lineup, the Senators aren`t exceptionally high-scoring as a team. They also have some vulnerabilities on defense. Overall, the Maple Leafs would likely be considered the more talented team and the favorites in a series.
Why Ottawa Could Be a Tough Matchup: Ullmark`s inconsistency is a double-edged sword. When he`s “hot,” he`s capable of single-handedly winning games, as he has demonstrated recently.
While the Senators` overall scoring is low, they are statistically underperforming their expected goals, suggesting they`ve experienced some bad luck in shooting percentage. They generate more scoring chances than their current goal totals reflect, indicating potential for offensive improvement. Before a recent slump, Ottawa scored four or more goals in seven of eight March games. The addition of Dylan Cozens has also strengthened their top-six forward group.
Defensively, Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are elite skaters, and team speed can be a weakness for the Maple Leafs, who aren`t known for their outright pace. Sanderson, in particular, could cause problems for Toronto.
Finally, there`s the emotional factor. Ottawa is on an upswing, fighting for a playoff spot, and facing their biggest rival, Toronto, would be highly motivating, especially for players like Brady Tkachuk seeking his first playoff experience. The intensity and emotion from Ottawa could be very high. Tkachuk`s performance at the 4 Nations tournament showed how impactful he can be when energized. A series against Ottawa wouldn`t be easy physically, regardless of the outcome.
Final Thought: A series against Ottawa could heavily rely on goaltending. The Senators` energy and enthusiasm would likely lead to both scoring opportunities and defensive mistakes, placing significant pressure on both team`s goalies to make crucial saves.
Tristan Blackwood