While the current group of potential unrestricted free agents in the NHL is intriguing, particularly regarding Toronto Maple Leafs player Mitch Marner`s future earnings, attention is already shifting towards the significant UFA class of 2026.
This upcoming class is notably strong, featuring prominent players eligible for contract extensions this summer, including Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Kyle Connor, and Kirill Kaprizov, among others.
Combining this level of talent with significant increases in the projected salary cap — up to $95.5 million next season, then a large jump to $104 million in 2026-27, followed by $113.5 million in 2027-28 — creates ideal conditions for groundbreaking contracts that will redefine market values.
And the biggest deal could potentially go to the Minnesota Wild star.
“There are people in the league who believe this will end up being the NHL’s highest-paid player,” Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said about Kaprizov on a recent podcast episode. “That in this next wave of contracts, with the cap going up … Kaprizov is going to end up being No. 1 on the list.”
It`s widely known that Kaprizov, 28, is due for a substantial raise. Wild owner Craig Leipold emphasized this point clearly during a media session last October, stating that Kaprizov would be the central figure in the team`s future plans. He confidently asserted that no other team would surpass their financial or term offers, indicating their priority is demonstrating a commitment to winning.
Naturally, the maximum term of eight years is exclusive to the Wild. Their desire to build a winning team has also been evident.
The Wild spent a significant portion of the season`s first half near the top of the standings until injuries, including one to Kaprizov, pushed them into a competitive wild card battle. Minnesota then challenged Vegas in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, demonstrating their depth and resilience before being eliminated in six games by the Golden Knights. Kaprizov finished the series as its leading scorer. During media availability after the season, Kaprizov himself expressed a strong desire to remain with the team.
Wild GM Bill Guerin stated that extending Kaprizov was “priority No. 1” this summer, aiming to get it done as soon as possible.
He echoed ownership’s sentiment from October:
“Nobody can offer him more than we can. What Craig said [in the pre-season] is true,” Guerin commented. “I’m very confident we’re going to get a deal done with Kirill.”
These upcoming negotiations are particularly intriguing due to the timing: the substantial increase in the salary cap, the wealth of talent joining Kaprizov in UFA status, and Minnesota`s internal financial outlook. This summer is one the state of hockey has anticipated. When Guerin initiated the buyouts of the final four years of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise’s $98 million deals in 2021, the team entered a challenging period of self-imposed salary cap restrictions, with the most severe limitations in 2023-24 and 2024-25. The combined cap hit from these buyouts totaled over $14.7 million this season and last.
Despite this, Minnesota successfully managed these constraints by giving increased roles to younger, cost-effective players and securing long-term contracts for core players to gain cap certainty.
With the Parise and Suter buyouts accounting for only $1.6 million over the next few seasons, the financial burden is significantly reduced. Minnesota is perfectly positioned to allocate a substantial contract to one of its most gifted players – an athlete who contributed to on-ice success while the management navigated cap challenges. This move would signal to the rest of the league the Wild`s serious commitment to competing for a championship.
Minnesota`s negotiating position is also strengthened by the fact that they do not have multiple other core players needing extensions this summer. Key players such as Matt Boldy ($7 million per year through 2029-30), Joel Eriksson Ek (a valuable $5.25 million through 2028-29) up front and captain Jared Spurgeon ($7.575 million AAV through 2026-27), Jonas Brodin ($6 million AAV through 2027-28) and Brock Faber (whose eight-year extension, worth $8.5 million per, starts next season and runs through 2032-33) are already signed to long-term deals, providing significant salary cap predictability. With a strong supporting cast, this roster construction clearly identifies Kaprizov as the team`s undisputed star, setting the stage for a commensurate contract.
Teams like the Oilers or Maple Leafs facing major contract negotiations also have multiple high-salary stars to manage. In contrast, Minnesota`s setup allows Kaprizov to potentially be the franchise`s highest earner, aligning with his status as the primary offensive leader.
So, what might Kaprizov’s contract actually look like?
To project his potential contract value, it`s helpful to examine recent deals that have set market standards.
Looking at comparable contracts according to AAV
When Kaprizov signed his previous five-year, $45 million contract in 2021, player earnings were suppressed due to the flat salary cap resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The league has seen significant financial growth recently, with top players securing increasingly valuable contracts, providing important benchmarks for Kaprizov`s upcoming negotiation.
Currently, Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs holds the highest Average Annual Value (AAV). His contract, signed in August 2023, surpassed Nathan MacKinnon`s deal (eight years at $12.6 million each), which had previously raised the bar following Connor McDavid`s eight-year extension ($12.5 million AAV) that began in 2018-19.
Leon Draisaitl is set to become the league`s highest-paid player by AAV when his substantial eight-year, $112 million extension ($14 million AAV) takes effect this July for the 2025-26 season. However, with the projected cap increases, his record may soon be broken as AAVs could reach $15 million, $16 million, or even higher in the near future, potentially starting with Kaprizov if Minnesota`s owner follows through on his declaration.
Looking at contracts according to cap percentage
Kaprizov`s current $9 million cap hit represented 11.04% of the Wild’s $81.5 million salary cap when he signed for the 2021-22 season. Applying that same percentage to the projected 2026-27 cap of $104 million results in an AAV of less than $11.5 million, which is significantly below current market expectations for a player of his caliber.
Connor McDavid`s extension signed in 2017 was historic, marking the first $100 million contract since the CBA capped terms at eight years. His AAV constituted 15.72% of the $79.5 million cap at the time, a percentage that remains the highest relative cap hit.
MacKinnon`s deal accounted for 15.09% of Colorado`s $83.5 million cap space, and Matthews` deal represented 15.06% of Toronto`s $88 million cap this past season, placing them close behind McDavid in relative cap percentage. While Draisaitl`s upcoming AAV will be the highest actual dollar value, the increased salary cap means his contract will account for 14.66% of the cap in 2025-26.
Assuming a range of 13% to 15% represents a new standard for elite players` cap hit percentage, let`s apply these figures to the projected 2026-27 cap:
Using Draisaitl`s 14.66% as a recent benchmark, Kaprizov`s AAV on a $104 million cap would be approximately $15.25 million annually.
Matching McDavid`s peak relative cap hit of 15.72% (from 2018-19) to Kaprizov`s potential earnings starting in 2026-27 suggests an AAV of around $16.35 million.
Regardless of the final figure, and whether Kaprizov ultimately becomes the NHL`s highest-paid player, this off-season is poised to be transformative for the league`s top players and the teams signing them.
The rising salary cap and numerous expiring star contracts are set to fundamentally change the NHL`s contract landscape.
Tristan Blackwood