SUZUKA, Japan — For Yuki Tsunoda, a significant breakthrough in Formula 1 once seemed to be slipping away. Red Bull`s faith appeared to waver, and even Honda`s support seemed to be diminishing.

However, now, with his Red Bull debut at Suzuka, his home circuit, on the horizon, his long-awaited opportunity has finally arrived.

The questions are immediate and pressing: Can he truly perform? Has this chance come too late in the day?

The shift in circumstances since the Chinese Grand Prix — and Tsunoda`s elevation from Racing Bulls, taking Liam Lawson`s place — has been truly remarkable, even within the often surprising world of F1. Tsunoda, who for a considerable time seemed frustratingly distant from the coveted Red Bull Racing seat, has now been granted it. How he navigates this challenge will be pivotal in shaping his career from this point forward.

Measuring success alongside a teammate like Max Verstappen is inherently challenging, but the performance benchmark set by the previous four drivers in that position is not particularly high. Tsunoda`s immediate goal is straightforward: master Red Bull`s RB21. This car, like many of its predecessors, appears to be incredibly fast in the hands of an exceptional driver like Verstappen, but notoriously difficult for others. It has the potential to erode a driver`s confidence.

The Yuki Turnaround

Tsunoda`s promotion was fueled by a perception that while Lawson had a concerningly slow start, the 24-year-old Japanese driver had matured into the polished racer Red Bull Racing had long envisioned.

“Yuki Tsunoda is undeniably fast, a fact we acknowledge, but his performance has been inconsistent,” commented Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko following the promotion announcement. “Initially, we leaned towards Lawson as the stronger candidate, but Yuki has undergone a significant transformation. His change in management has played a role, and under the current circumstances, this decision emerged as the most advantageous path forward.”

Many observers would argue that Tsunoda`s improved form has been evident for a considerable period, not just in recent weeks of 2025. Yet, this wasn`t the prevailing view within Red Bull. As recently as December, the team was openly considering parting ways with him entirely.

“We are acutely aware that if we cannot offer Yuki a genuine opportunity this year, we must question the logic of retaining him,” team principal Christian Horner remarked to ESPN and other media at a late 2024 event, shortly after Lawson was initially preferred. “You cannot keep a driver in a supporting role indefinitely, for five years. There comes a point where you must either let them pursue other avenues or explore alternative strategies.”

At that event, few, including Horner himself, would have anticipated Tsunoda`s swift ascent from understudy to leading role within just the third race of the subsequent season. Horner`s previous reservations about Tsunoda centered on perceived temperament issues. Evidently, in a remarkably short timeframe, these concerns have been allayed.

How could Tsunoda`s readiness be so drastically reassessed in just four months?

Then there`s the role of Honda. Recent reports suggested the Japanese manufacturer offered as much as $10 million to secure Tsunoda`s Red Bull seat. However, sources have clarified to ESPN that the actual incentive was a discount on the final year of their engine partnership — a deal Red Bull reluctantly agreed to at a premium after their split with Renault in 2018, and subsequent refusals from Ferrari and Mercedes to supply engines — rather than a direct cash payment.

While still a significant gesture from Honda, it raises further questions. Given Red Bull`s substantial payout to Sergio Pérez last year — reportedly exceeding $12 million according to ESPN sources — it seems even more perplexing that Tsunoda`s experience and Honda`s financial support weren`t sufficient to convince Horner and the Red Bull leadership earlier.

Adding another layer of complexity is Honda`s own evolving stance. Their continued backing of Tsunoda appeared uncertain until recently, but they`ve executed an even more rapid about-face than Red Bull. Just weeks prior, Honda`s racing division head seemed to be subtly encouraging Tsunoda to explore options beyond Red Bull.

“He needs to take initiative,” Honda Racing Corporation president Koji Watanabe told Motorsport.com. “I want him to make choices that are best for his own career.

“We can only offer limited support. He needs to strengthen his support network, including his manager, and secure a suitable position. He is, after all, a professional driver. Drivers cannot perpetually rely on Honda`s backing. A driver at Tsunoda`s career stage needs to be proactive in shaping his own path.”

Considering that Tsunoda was at Honda`s headquarters just weeks later, celebrating his inaugural drive as a Red Bull Racing driver, these preceding statements now seem strikingly contradictory.

A pivotal figure appears to have been instrumental in this turnaround. Much has been attributed to his new management team, partnering with Mexican agent Diego Menchaca after parting ways with Mario Miyakawa and Luis Alvarez. ESPN sources suggest that Tsunoda`s previous management was perceived as an obstacle to his upward mobility.

His change in management seems to have coincided with a shift in both approach and public perception. The tangible impact of this change within a few months is hard to quantify, but it`s noteworthy that both Red Bull and Honda have highlighted it as a contributing factor.

All Eyes on Yuki

Regardless of the circumstances surrounding his promotion, Tsunoda now faces a critical, make-or-break opportunity that he must seize. The odds appear stacked against him from the outset. The RB21 is known to be a challenging car to handle, and Tsunoda is already at a disadvantage, having missed pre-season testing and the first two race weekends to integrate into the team. While his home debut in Suzuka is a dream scenario, it also marks the start of a demanding three-week triple header — Japan is immediately followed by races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. A sluggish start could quickly spiral into a confidence crisis if he struggles with the unforgiving nature of the car.

Red Bull`s prior hesitations about promoting Tsunoda had always been somewhat perplexing. The “inconsistencies” Marko mentioned were not readily apparent, especially in the last couple of seasons.

Tsunoda now finds himself as teammate to Verstappen, a driver known for his dominance over teammates — a reputation that Tsunoda himself somewhat mirrors. Tsunoda`s strong performances contributed to Nyck de Vries`s early exit in 2023. Daniel Ricciardo had occasional flashes of brilliance in his stead, but the contrast between his form and Tsunoda`s — particularly early last season when the car was competitive in the midfield — was stark. It effectively dispelled Red Bull`s notion that Ricciardo was the right choice to replace Pérez. Tsunoda also outperformed Lawson, although the Kiwi demonstrated impressive potential that caught Red Bull`s attention.

Tsunoda`s promotion can be seen as Red Bull correcting a prior misjudgment. He arguably should have been alongside Verstappen from the start of 2025. The Japanese driver spent a considerable 89 races with the junior team. In comparison, Ricciardo had 39 races in his first stint before promotion, while Sebastian Vettel and Verstappen had 25 and 23, respectively. Red Bull had been uncharacteristically hesitant to elevate their brightest young talent since Verstappen`s own graduation to the senior team in 2016, through their established development pipeline.

For those who want Tsunoda to succeed, his situation appears to be a trial by fire.

Sources have indicated to ESPN that Tsunoda is not viewed as a long-term solution at Red Bull; he is simply considered a better immediate option than Lawson, and more likely to be competitive if Red Bull can address the RB21`s temperamental nature and contend for the constructors` championship. While this may seem like a distant prospect, Red Bull is reportedly placing significant hopes on the upcoming ban on flexible wings, set to take effect at the Spanish Grand Prix.

In terms of expectations, Tsunoda simply needs to consistently perform within the mix, providing solid support to his teammate.

“Ultimately, Red Bull Racing`s priority is Max [Verstappen] securing the drivers` championship,” Tsunoda stated to BBC Radio 5 Live. “He has demonstrated the potential to be a world champion — even though Red Bull currently faces some challenges. Performance-wise, [Horner] wants me to be as close to Max as possible. In certain races, I can contribute to strategy, and he has also assured me that in situations where I am ahead of Max, he would not necessarily instruct me to concede positions to ensure Max`s victory.”

Whether Red Bull would actually adhere to the latter promise remains to be seen, but it seems a hypothetical scenario at this point. Given Pérez`s significant performance gap last year, and Lawson`s position at the lower end of the timing sheets in his initial races, it`s reasonable to expect Red Bull would be content with respectable results from Tsunoda early on — Q3 appearances and points finishes would be considered impressive given the circumstances he faces.

Tsunoda now faces broader implications for his career trajectory.

Previously, it seemed he was exploring opportunities elsewhere; Cadillac`s incoming F1 team reportedly admires his talent, and Haas attempted to recruit him last year before shifting their focus to Esteban Ocon when it became evident Tsunoda`s unique Red Bull contract effectively confined him to his current team. While initial struggles would be understandable, the risk of this move, given its circumstances, is that it could undermine the positive perception he has meticulously built over recent years within the junior team. Those within the paddock are aware of the RB21`s challenging handling, but it would be an unfortunate irony if the opportunity Tsunoda had long been denied ultimately damaged the goodwill he has cultivated since entering Formula 1.

However, such is the nature of the sport. Previously, Tsunoda had a valid point that Red Bull had never truly given him a chance to showcase his full potential. That argument no longer holds. He must now make this opportunity work for him. While examples exist of drivers like Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly who struggled at Red Bull but found success elsewhere, Tsunoda`s promotion has added complexity to what already appeared to be an intricate and somewhat perplexing career trajectory to this point.